Watching the CAG.... Watching the Models..... Are You Preparing for 2025 Hurricane Season? A Look at Models and Convection and Patterns

 

Let's talk about the Elephant in the room.

The huge swirl out in the Atlantic 

it's not a Subtropical Storm.

Tho many online are asking why not.

Definitely has beautiful form.

Far side of our world but still....

Let's look on the Mimic.

1st thing we see is the big blue swirling system many are talking about, but NHC is ignoring. Next you probably notice the solid orange/red tropical convergance zone that is easily discernable from East Africa to way West of Panama. And, there's lots of whispers.... and yelling about the Central American Gyre forming and possibly helping spin up an early tropical system. That is true, but there are many factors involved in any sort of "development" in the tropics and so we know it's there. Something could easily form in the Eastern Pacific (their system begins on May 15th) or in the SW Carib.  But there's more to the mystery than just the CAG. 

This is the region we are watching.

Or rather wondering on.

CAG

Closer in to the US coastline is another swirl.

Big swirl. 

Many are asking why NHC hasn't........

NHC isn't rushing in 

They don't.

IF they need to they will in some way.

But for now they're not speculating on speculation.

So let's talk about another elephant in the room.

The flow currently in the Gulf is a problem.

A problem for rain.

More than rain ...can't say now.

But it begins down near Tx/Mx border

Gets pulled up from the Bay of Campeche...

...pulls North along the coastline.

Then cuts off to the ENE sliding along the coast.

Again. 

Reminds me of last season lol but just rain.

Models show moisture pushing into Florida Big Bend.

Again.

Begins here.......GFS.

Then we have this on Saturday.

Wow there's just moisture everywhere.

Rain, storms... maybe flooding.

This is the GFS

The EURO shows a bit here...

Remember that MIMIC that follows the coastline.

Traces the coastline of the Gulf with moisture.

This feels Sooo deja vu....

2024 in ways.

Early in the Season and late in the Season.

So many commonalities.

The EURO for Saturday.

What's the biggest difference?

The EURO pushes this deep inland.

Heavy rains ...rather than GFS

Tuesday.

Euro above.

Severe Weather and lots of rain.

GFS below for the same day.

The truth is this is May and in May we wonder on the tropics and any sign of convection in the Caribbean or off the SE Coast we watch for development a long late season cold fronts that stall out over water that's warming up every day in every way.

And sometimes something develops.

Or something tries to develop and dumps rain.

Lots and lots of rain.

And other times nothing develops.

But one way or the other.........

...Hurricane Season is coming at you fast!

24 days away.

3 weeks.

EPAC begins May 15th.

1 week to go.

Sometimes.......

...something tries to form in EPAC 

...but shoots over into the Caribbean.

Old school trackers know this is one region.

Think South to North vs West to East.

Early in the Season CAG can set up.

where the moisture goes

anyone knows

Stay tuned.

Get prepared!

You have 1 job.

Get prepared!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather

elsewhere whatever.

Ps If you don't know me by now...

..you'll know I'll talk on maybes.

But I'll stick with the set up.

And with the impt message of Get Prepared!