Hurricane Harbor: Is Patty Forming in the Caribbean This Week? TD or TS or Hurricane? Models Offer a Huge Menu of Possibilities.

Anyone that knows me knows I love maps. In the absence of an Invest it's good to take a look around at maps that NOAA puts out for the next week or so and above we have one of those maps. What we can see is that there's a front draped across the Southeast and one further down in the Caribbean stationary from Cuba up into the Atlantic. A red L is ceremonially stuck down the the coast of Columbia to the East of the Monsoon Tropical Wave.

Orange 40%

Showing models currently is useless as by the time I hit "post" a new model run will come out. The Canadian is hot to trot and sees intensity that other models do not see as easily. Again nothing has formed so without a formation point when dealing with the CAG in that part of the world, we have to wait and see where it forms and when it forms. Til then we are zooming through models, ensemble models and other imagery used to make a best guess on where it would most likely go. And, in November they can catch a front out of the Caribbean or they can suddenly stall out and wander in different directions scaring everyone like left over Halloween Mojo. Ensemble models are like a haunted house with various tracks zig zagging across the Caribbean going North and NW and then NW and maybe all at once.

First day I could watch Mike in weeks.

Been busy here.

Fun to just watch him do this his thing.

The questions will be answered.........

...when we have a defined center.

Where and when it forms is everything.

The real question is whether whatever forms moves fast towards landfall or does it get cut off, left behind and stalls or loops waiting for another feature it finds more fascinating to run with ...once it gets going. This is the key to having a well defined game plan or lots of spaghetti all over the models going in every direction possible.

So many IFs right now. All we "know" is that there is a good chance something forms in the SW Caribbean over the next week. NHC currently uses the phrase "tropical depression" so they are keeping their expectations low for now. There's always some model screaming hurricane and there's lots of models screaming shear.

It all comes down to "timing" and where it forms, when it forms and how it forms. Does it form fast or slow and wobbly movement vs knowing where it wants to go before it gets a name.

This is November in the tropics. Fronts, for the most part, protect Florida tho sometimes they allow one to slip through or slide along the coastline creating a strong wind flow with beach erosion possible.

I did this screenshot earlier today of Mike talking.

Talking on November tracks from the past.

As he says... history gets made every year.

They don't HAVE to follow historic tracks.

But....it gives a good idea of what could happen.

Let's zoom in and look at the yellow dots.

Yes, there is one near SW Florida.

I'll admit that one wiggles NW then NE ...

(some models have suggested that movement)

For the most part..........

They are zooming out of Carib to NE

Sometimes they can bend back towards USA

cold front draws them in then sweeps it away.

I'm doing the best I can today ...trying to lay low, rest and take medication. My head is stuffed up and obviously there's an element of Fall Allergy, however they have barely bothered me this year and really think this is more a cold or a virus trying to become a Sinus Issue. Time will tell. Sinus medication makes me sleepy and asthma medication makes me restless and playful. A dangerous combination sometimes and as I type this I giggle but my energy is to low to do anything too dangerous or silly.

Gonna watch some videos of others talking on the possibilities. Reorganize things as my house guests have departed and things need to be put back to where they used to be as I had to make the "guest room" back into a "guest room" from a "storage room" and then take it a day at a time.

Being honest, I love the Fall in the Carolinas. Everyone wants to know when I'm coming back to Florida and honestly "not now" is my answer. Every day is new here, one tree is gold, one tree is burnished copper, one tree has mixed leaves like a crazy quilt and the maple trees are about to go red. The sky is blue and it's been blue for a week easily. Generally after Thanksgiving I'm in the mood to go somewhere and in this case it may be somewhere that there's snow as it's hard to get snow in Raleigh unless we get into a wet scenario vs a dry one.

Curious on Patty, the next named storm, and watching loops and models and part of me is trying not to look at winter forecasts and stay in the Hurricane Zone and the other part of me is already halfway to Winter.