A Look Back at the Week (Flooding Rains Florida) And A Look Ahead Down the Tropical Road. Happy Father's Day Weekend. Beware of the Extreme Heat in Many Cities!

Pics at top.

Words at the bottom...

 

Yellow 20%

Orange 50% in 7 day...

As for the whole tropical basin...

..areas to watch and keep an eye on.

South FL issues below.

Regarding the Florida Flooding.
It's not totally over.

Rob from Crown Weather Was on Top of It!

While it's gonna get better...

...still more rain.

And, rain needs to drain.

Competitive Swirls in 2 Basins.

EPAC mixing it up with BOC in ways.

This new wave reaching higher.

Latitiudinal Higher!

Beginning with the African tropical wave as it's worth starting with as the point I'm making here is the current waves coming off Africa are looking like late July, vs late June. This is too soon for waves to be this moist and juicy closer to 10 N than they have been. Add in the extreme heat in the waters surrounding many places that are prone to get early season development and this is a concern and while we are far from September, this is definitely more like late July and things tend to pop in that time period.

And, more so they are neatly spaced and coming off regularly enough for us to watch the area I wouldn't really talk about seriously for another month of so ...tho....we can't help but watch the waves.

THE GFS....

Ultimate dreamer.

I'll be honest, I like to watch the GFS who doens't need a fast cheap thrill sometimes weather wise, especially when mid 90s are on the menu in the Carolinas as if it's late July.... much like the tropical wave train is too high, too early in time.

Rhymes are cute to use and remember, however they are the average rule of thumb, and there is nothing average about 2024. We have had severe flooding in multiple places around the globe from Miami to Dubai and we have had gorilla hail everywhere. Gotta tell you, hail happens but no not really this frequently do you have "gorilla hail" the term made famous this year for sure.

It's a wild ride sort of year weather wise and often a flip between an El Nino to a La Nina is the most dangerous sort of year weatherwise. In 1900 prior to the Galveston Hurricane there was rivers of hail so heavy in areas to the North of there that looked to Isaac Cline the famous meteorologist that went to check it out ... his reports said it looked like snow. Perhaps they had Gorilla Hail that in 1900 in Texas too?

So keep your eye on the Gulf of Mexico, what the GFS does show (as well as a few other models) a surge of tropical moisture moving North into that part of the Gulf of Mexico to the WEST of a strong High Pressure area trying hard to hold tight. There's crazy high pressure to the far North that is expected to bring 100 degree like heat to NY, NJ... New Englander Patriots will know what it's like as it feels like that often at Hard Rock Stadium when they have to play the Fins  in August in Miami.

And, a serious warning for Father's Day. Do not push it in the heat. Change your plans, stay inside and do not feel you have to do outdoor activities in "feels like 105" or it may take a horrible toll on your life. People die from the heat more than they do from the cold or storms; it attacks our body in ways too numerous to go into especially as Daddy ages....  Heat Waves kill and in June people are not yet used to it nor have they acclimated themselves to "oh my gosh it's so hot this summer" so it's a horrible slap in the face to anyone who cannot deal with the heat medically speaking. Just don't. Human being's ability to adapt is what has kept us going.... those that did not adapt died off. Truth. 

As for the Flooding in South Florida ...what can I say that I have not said already? 

My brother is driving around North Miami trying to get to a house to do an appraisal. He'd like to get close enough but he's circling around blocks. One block has water up near the houses and the block behind it has very little standing water anywhere. Remember TWC and everyone else shows the worst case, dramatic imagery but the reality is it's a patchwork quilt and every few streets it changes.

He and I also talked on the reality that early development was in areas where the land was higher. I'd say "duh" but it's not easy for many newcomers to understand. Yes, all of WPB down through Miami may look similar, but it's not. IF you are looking for a new home as you flee New York or New Jersey, and you see oaks and pine trees growing naturally... know that area is naturally a bit higher and less of low land which floods easily as it was more swampy at one time. Miami doesn't really have hills (a few in the Grove or along the River...or an old Indian Mound . . . ) but it has areas that are higher vs lower. Anyone who has been to the Greynold's Park area knows there's higher land where oaks and pines grow, than out in West Broward that was Sawgrass and Swamp. In general North Miami Beach has areas with higher ground, other areas lower ground (especially Miami Gardens Drive) ... and North Miami tends to have lower land. 

These are Dade County Pine trees.

Picture from 1920s.

If you see them growing naturally.

Know the land is higher.

Better for allergies.

They will fall in a hurricane tho...

...at 100 mph winds usually.

Seriously it is what it is... 

Life is like that and you take your chances and make decisions based on your own needs. You wanna get away from the cold, frozen North then..........sure go by a cute little house in Miami and the odds are you may live in that house for 18 years and never get a horrible, horrific hurricane. Or you may move to Miami and be there barely one year and Hurricane Irma comes along, breaks tiles off your roof and knocks down all the cute little fruit trees that were growing on your property that made it looks so tropical!

It's a crap shoot. 

Live in Raleigh two years and you may never see a blizzard let alone snow accumulating before heading to Jacksonville Florida and the next year they get 8 feet of snow on the street where you lived. 

Meet a cute guy, fall in love, think he's awesome and then for odd reasons you break up and go your own way and never know what happened to him. Years later you run into him at Disneyland with your respective families and he's cute, happy and you're thrilled for him. Or he stalks you all over the Internet and you spend way too much time with the blinds shut and wearing disguises when you go out to the grocery store. Just saying... 

Every place on the globe has some horrible, natural disaster that can rearrange your neighborhood.

Choose wisely.

Hurricanes are one of the few natural disasters that you be warned about in advance with time to either board up far from storm surge or hit the road with others after boarding up your home as best you can. And, know that one of the deaths attributed to in Hurricane Andrew was a small child who lived far to the North of Florida where a crazy band of distant rain slammed an area far from landfall and a tall pine snapped or some other heavy oak tree lost a branch that fell into the house where the small child was sleeping and died. I've tried to forget the exact details, it was heartbreaking, but it happens. Last year while waiting for Idalia to finally make landfall, Vidalia Georgia to the North was getting flooding rains and age old oak trees in Tallahassee dropped branches like they were pecans ready to eat and enjoy.  

Many call Twisters "Finger of God" though I prefer to think of them as "Finger of the Devil" but it's true they are unpredictable and there's not always time to get out of the way. Don't even get me started on Earthquakes as I lived in California a long time.

Hurricane Preparation is the name of the game in June. If you think the flooding was bad in South Florida this weekend from a tropical disturbance that slid slowly through the area with training rains... imagine what those waters outside your house would be like with wind driven waves on top of them, driving them higher into your house while the violent winds are tearing at your roof and windows trying to get into your hiding place where you hunkered down. 

Have a good weekend.

Next week we will nail down whether Texas gets a deluge of rain or a named storm, or if the Tex/Mex region gets a BOC storm with a name. And, if the wave that looks kick ass today can survive the trek westbound or WNW bound to get to a friendlier spot.

And, if shear relaxes anywhere in the tropical basin... watch out!

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

Ps Today is a headache day so not even proofing ...so sorry if there are any mistakes.