Hurricane Harbor: Smooth Sailing Weather Today ... BUT.... 2024 Hurricane Season Will Change That. Busy Above Average Season Predicted. Boat Prep List Today

No tropical problems today in our world.

Some fire dangers out West.

Smooth sailing as some would say.

In my world....

Low here was 35 yesterday....

....the high 75.

This time of year you can get any temperature you want it seems in the piedmont of the Carolinas. I brought summer clothes back from Florida and have my winter clothes still out. Transitionary periods are prone to sudden wild temperature swings and wild weather. It cools down, it warms up and then the next cool or cold air mass crashes into the warm humid zone and trouble often follows. For chasers who specialize in Tornado Weather this is their time of year. For people who obssess on hurricanes, this is the time of year to make plans to put into action should you be in the cone of a 2024 Hurricane.

Somewhere someone is always asking .....

...about the 2024 Hurricane Season.

What do we know for now?

It's forecast to be an above-average season.

El Nino leaving.

La Nina coming on strong??

I've read many scary headlines promising the Season from Hell and while it is definitely possible, it's way too early to know how much of a hurricane hell we will see indeed. There are so many variables in every hurricane season. Yes, La Nina means more hurricanes usually but there are possibilities that change everything.

Size? Big, huge hurricanes that take up a large area geographically such as IRMA and FLOYD or small, tightly wound systems such as Andrew that looked "small" in comparison to Floyd! Andrew was a rather dry hurricane with fierce winds and vortexes yet Floyd was huge and once it slowed and rained itself out over North Carolina flooding far inland as well as at the coast was an added punch in the gut for many small towns. We saw this also with Florence that traipsed across the Atlantic and then slowed down and well Jim Cantore was kind of trapped in Wimington for longer than he planned to be there...

Track? Say a positive environment for hurricane development lingers off the African coast and storms form far out near the Cabo Verde Islands and nothing blocks them from gaining latitude and then we have strong storms that are "fish storms" staying out at sea vs moving steadily WNW and slowly intensifying.

Blocking patterns and TUTTs often open up doors in the Mid Atlantic that allow for hurricanes to go North and other times they inhibit development. Patterns can set up that help hurricanes zooming Westbound go straight into the Caribbean and slam into Central America, this last year we had a few that reformed in the Pacific.

Frontal boundaries that pick up hurricanes and sweep them out to sea or fronts aligned differently that bring them into Mississippi and Florida, Alabama included.

Sometimes storms form fast and then they run into other storms, there is only so much energy that can exist in the same spot and the shear from a nearby stronger hurricane rips developing tropical waves behind them apart or send them off course with a funky Fujiwhara dance move!

Alignment. Vertical alignment is important, many a beautiful tropical wave falls victim to not being vertically aligned and never gets it together. Or worse, for chasers, an Invest makes it into the Caribbean and never ever forms with all that potential just whoosh gone.

SAL? Sometimes SAL is stronger than other years and it dries out the whole basin, especially out where Tropical Atlantic hurricanes often form. We had this set up recently when predictions were for a bumper crop of hurricanes in the Main Development Region yet Saharan Dust reigned over the area drying out the atmosphere.

Saying we will have more hurricanes is easy.

Saying where they will be when it's still March is too far away even for the long range GFS :)

You have one job in a set up such as this year.

Prepare, Plan, Prioritize and Put your plan into action. The weather is fine, Memorial Day Sales are filled with items to hide away in your Hurricane Supplies locker. Lock it up, trust me it's the only way things will be there when you need them. Try Dollar Stores and chains such as Big Lots to find deals for items that won't expire any time soon that you may pick up for pennies on the dollar. Every time we leave Miami the kids give us cases of water "for the road" and as we can only drink so much....that's now piled for emergencies :)

Seriously use this time wisely. As we get closer to the season more reliable studies and predictions as to which part of the basin may have to worry more than another part. Til then enjoy Spring Weather, enjoy March Madness and remember to plan for hurricane season coming in 80 days that's a little over 2 months away and often we have early, pre-season action.

If you have a boat........today's check list is for you!