Hurricane Harbor: Stronger Tropical Waves in MDR. SAL Still There...Holding On. NHC Says Nada for 7 Days. Nothing. What Makes a Perfect Season? A Look Back at the Miami Dolphins 1972 Perfect Season.

Let's start here.

We gotta start somewhere.

There is a vigrous tropical wave in the distant Atlantic moving away from Africa. In front of it is the wave that came off Africa previously, and they both travel West just below the Saharan Dust that cloaks the Atlantic making development of tropical waves difficult still. I've heard it said that the SAL this year is not that strong, not that big and my response is it's been consistent and not everything has to be unprecedented they just have to be there doing their thing. All they have to do is do their thing, I'll say it again, and that thing is suppress tropical development in July and into early August. At some point even great looking Saharan Dust begins to Peter out... and often they go Poof and we wait til we get into the latter part of August and the Atlantic remembers it's September!

Graphic shows this above.

Purposely putting it here.

Similar colors to above image at the top.

Similar, but different.

Message is the same.

These waves work in tandem, as the lead wave always blocks for the latter wave, and at one point in time the latter wave has the goods that will go the distance and survive the crappy environment that SAL has left the previous ones. SAL suppresses development until it begins to lose it's grip and then waves keep rolling, building and eventually developing! Look at the image above at the top and note at some point SAL lets up and it's not as thick and often a wave with a purpose regoups closer in to the Islands IF it makes it past the SAL without unraveling. Around August 20th things change and if they don't change then we re-evaluate those busy season forecasts, until then we are watching waves, watching models and shooting the tropical breeze.

Being transparent, models are not in love with these waves though they always like the next wave that it'll come off next. Models have been very unreliable this year with a few bright, shining moments of accuracy. Today's GFS hit Tex/Mex with a hurricane that was a rogue wave riding under the radar until it magically comes together and goes all the way to the borderlands. The EURO did not, but it did do strange kinky things with multiple Lows dancing across America. Icon, JMA and CMC see bursts of activity but nothing that's impressing the NHC.

NHC hung out it's 7 Day shingle.

They are for now ignoring the waves.

They really prefer model support.

They'd really prefer better model output.

Modeling on the last 2 was pathetic.

In my humble opinion.

You have to know when to trust the models and when to say "okay, let's see what happens in real time" and watch all the satelitte imagery we have available from various means and sources that can slice and dice the Atlantic and look deep down into the heart of it and decide whether the models are doing a good job or a bad job. Everything can't be model driven, but many will disagree with me. The last 2 Invests are good examples of how modeling can go wrong and why it's wise to wait a bit. NHC has been wise this year in general, however it's a difficult set up for them with the new 7 Day Plan going LIVE (talked about for years but finally put into action) and honestly that's going to produce a whole lot of dud Invests. And, those of us that knew and studied Invests before they were public knowledge know that many of the Invests do not develop, some even make it from the Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico and never put out, never develop and unravel day by day yet holding onto just enough moisture to keep the dream alive.

Speaking of the Dream Team.

Miami Dolphin Perfect Season.

Dream Team.

Why were they so good?

Many elements, players came together to work together to go the distance. Yes, they had a great coach, but they also had players that worked in sync, together to make the plays. Csonka and Kiick are legendary examples and you can Google it if you haven't heard of them. If you don't have parents who are Dolphin fans who wax poetic on the members of this team and who wait every year, for the new year to be another dream team, perfect season team! And in the tropics, sometimes one wave blocks for the next wave.

Years in Hurricane History that had spectacular ACE with a never ending parade of named storms that they had to literally look for a new alphabet didn't just happen because someone waved a wand or put out a forecast insisting it would happen. They didn't happen just because the water temperature were anomaly warm! It happened because everything came together just so, and every team is a weak as it's weakest link!

This 2023 Hurricane Season has a few weak links, one is El Nino and various atmospheric conditions that aren't that big a deal individually, but when you put them together make it makes it more difficult for waves to develop even when the water is hot, hot, hot. Because it takes more than Hot Water to get multiple hurricanes going and achieve the high expectations that are currently out there with the seasonal forecasts.

Maybe it'll happen.

Probably it won't.

I wouldn't bet on it or against it.

I'm here for the ride.... watching the scenery on the water vapor loop and comparing and contrasting it to history and football and my friends.

So keep all this in mind when reading forecasts of wild hurricane activity that may or may not happen. Prepare as if someone with a crystal ball that has never steered you wrong told you that a Major Hurricane is coming to your town. Get a plan to get out of town if you have to and know how to best hunker down if you are staying.

It's that simple!

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram and yeah Threads too. Pre-Season starts today. Hoping my teams do well but following the Miami Dolphins and the Carolina Panthers isn't always easy but we never give up the dream and sometimes we are just along for the ride!