Hurricane Harbor: Don is Off to See the Wizard and 95L Doing Strange Things... Got Bigger, 2 Vorts There. Models Disagree. What Else Is New?

95L found convection but ....

...lost it's sense of spin.

Now it's just a kink in the isobars.

NHC down to 20% yellow.

As for models.

EURO crashes it into Central America.

The GFS, God bless it's dramatic heart.

Is putting out fantasy Canes again.

Cliff notes here on the GFS Fantasy Cane .... it forms into a wicked storm, hurricane moves towards South Florida and then does that popular pull out and slides along the coast. Cruises up with the Gulfstream and hits anything that sticks out far enough like OBX and then keeps on going up the coast to check out a Yankee RedSox game before zooming off into the NATL as Don gave it good reviews on Yelp.

95L tries to stay alive by sucking moisture from..

...the wave behind it.

We saw this earlier in the season.

Bret did this with Cindy.

95L was tiny, now it's larger.

But.... it's got slim chances.

The white polka dots is SAL.

Saharan DUST.

Dry Air.

There is also shear!!

Do our eyes deceive us?

Truth is this is a very hostile time of year for tropical development in this region, because if it moves into the Eastern Caribbean there is no welcome mat out and shear shoots at it knocking away it's convection. Sometimes, once in a while an undeveloped wave has more than one vorticity signal and one move West into the Carib (despite all the red flags flying at the beach) and the other vort lifts a bit and tries to go up over the Islands IF there is some Low there that it wants to see because basically Lows go to Lows and stay away from Highs. Yet, the HIGH is there... even if the the GFS doesn't see it in a few days and well it's July.

Maybe, just maybe.

Euro stays with one vort

GFS takes the other one.

????

July sucks.

I'm sorry, great month for birthdays. Both my brothers are born in July. One of my all time favorite friends is born in July. July slides into August but unless you like hot weather....well it's not my personal favorite month. I have issues with August, always have and guess I always will as it's the time of year things change. But, August also has to be gotten through to get to September and I love September. September has hurricanes, football, cooler nights and the promise of a full blown Fall and Winter coming. Winter with the holidays and a decorated world ready for a party and the constant tease of snow that often arrives with time if you wait long enough. You can see the bones of the trees, their lines, the sky turns coral/lavender at sunset and the air is clear, crisp and boots are fun to wear!

2023 has been an odd strange year zooming by, so as much as I complain about July and meteorologists endlessly say how hot it is.............it will subside, as will the Saharan Dust.

Everything changes. Remember that.

Remember September. When the GFS shows a Fantasy Cane in late August and September, even then you have to sit up and take a look at it before going quick to the EURO to see if it jives.

And, as always the water vapor loop tells the tale better than most models in July.