Quiet Today. Thoughts on Lack of Development. Links to Great Websites. Only Time Will Tell....................

I'm leading here with the Main Page from Spaghetti Models as a simple glance says all there is to say today. Nothing happening! I've said that for a while now, it's got to be getting boring. Many of my hurricane friends have taken this week off to get some vacation time in with the family and do things that they may not be able to do later in the month. Later when it should get busy, but really who knows? I've said August 18th should show us some activity or models that lead to activity, it's just a date I picked for a few reasons and as always time will tell. 

I'm away for the next few days, though in the Carolinas and I'll update as needed. 

I've gone way too long lecturing on Hurricane Preparation here and by now you all have either prepared for the 2023 Hurricane Season, or you are waiting to be in a Watch or a Warning. I get it. Storm chasers have often been accused of being adrenaline junkies, but the biggest adrenaline junkies are the people who refuse to go shopping until their area is in a Hurricane Warning and then they jump into "prepare for the end of the world mode" racing to Publix fighting the others who waited for the last can of tuna fish on the shelf. Happens every hurricane.

Many have asked why it's so slow. I can so CLIMO which basically means "as the old rhyme goes" but in truth every year has it's own song it dances to and some years do start in July and rip all the way through October and others wait and wait until August 25th for the first Tropical Depression from a Tropical Wave off of Africa.

The list of reasons is long and many will say "Climate Change" and others will blame SAHARAN DUST and others will blame it on the core of the Earth turning in the other directions, astrology and some will blame it on weather modification. I'm not being mean, just honest as I'm online all day on the weather sites and every reason is tossed out there from the most scientific to from some that sound like a plot by Lex Luthor to take over the world in an old episode of Superman!

June too Soon. July too early. August Standby. September Remember. October all Over.

You cannot take that to the bank, but I've heard some of the biggest hurricane forecasters repeat it like a mantra while others simply say with that tone in their voice "CLIMO" meaning it's all Climatology.

Only looking back will we know what happened in 2023.

I'm on the road today. Somewhere between here and there...there are supposed to be wicked storms.

So use this time wisely to do some of your own research in the reasons and lingo of Tropical Meteorology while waiting for that yellow circle to show up and for models to take turns hitting your home town or aiming at the entire Eastern Seaboard!

Subsidence. I Googled it for you.

Subsidence doesn't sound so sexy.

But it's one of the main reasons it's slow.

Dry in the Mid Level of the atmosphere.

All that orange and dark red = nothing spinning.

It's not a welcome mat for tropical development.

Subsidence and Mid Level Dry Air.

Add in SAL.

Perfect Storm for no storms forming.

Despite the really warm water.

The description of subsidence above is from the excellent site linked to below. 

https://www.hurricanezone.net/ It's a great resource. Many people prefer looking at visual grids and that is why Mike's www.spaghettimodels.com is the go to site for many online. It's a visual buffet that leads to links to sites with more information. Some people, probably those of you reading a blog, do enjoy lots of words and information and the Hurricane Zone site is excellent for that.

Another site you can use that answers all your questions is linked to below:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/weather_sub/faq.html It is one of the best resources you can use. It's an official source as you see it says AOML and NOAA and GOV in the actual link to the website!

If you like Hurricane History check out Jim's page www.hurricanecity.com 

Have a wonderful Monday. We will see what we will see. Til then enjoy the day, worry less on hurricanes and worry more on staying hydrated if you are in the part of the country that's been stuck in hotter weather. If you are in the way of the summer storms with severe winds, keep at eye to the sky and pay attention to the your weather apps. If you are in the part of the country without severe heat or wicked weather then you won the weather lotto today! 

Sweet Tropical Dreams,

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram...  yeah Threads too for what it's worth.