Lorenzo and Narda... Center Stage in Both Basins. And... What Will Happen in October?

6 PM Update Sunday evening.

Enjoy the quiet times. It’s not gonna last as something will try and form in the Caribbean pic.twitter.com/oyXd6S3VeZ

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 29, 2019

 I made two short videos to explain some thoughts.
I've been partially resting today and cooking.
Wegman's opened in Raleigh.
Shopped for the Jewish New Year.
I now have Apple Crumb Babke to serve.
It's like a huge danish with apples inside.
And going out to friends, but cooking also.
Been looping and looking at models.
Models actually show the trouble I've been talking on...

The very long range GFS.

Now this is the GFS... and it's October 15th

Models will change often.

But this is an example of what I've been talking about.

The Euro that doesn't go out as far as the GFS...

...also shows something in the SW Carib.

It's a mix of the current set up and Climo.

How strong it gets...where it goes??

It's too soon to know.

But we do know it's a concern.

And to watch carefully.

Another view below ...

...a tropical wave North of Hispaniola. 

Updating blog adding this video. Watching for development in the Caribbean as we move deeper into October. https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa pic.twitter.com/k8v2htRLeB

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 29, 2019

As for me I'm doing the Jewish New Year.

That means (for newbies) I'll be offline.

From Sunday at sunset until Tuesday at sunset.

It's quiet right now with the exception of Lorenzo.

Watch the tropics but enjoy the quiet times.

www.spaghettimodels.com is your best source...

...for everything you need.

Know he has a Twitter feed on his page.

Bottom Right.

And all the people I follow are on it...

...so you'll always be up to date.

Many other great people to point to...

...but going with his one stop shop there.

May you all be blessed with happiness...

Love, laughter and the money to enjoy what you want.

And health... 

And let's keep those hurricanes far away.

Hopefully Great Britain & Ireland will be okay.

I remember when I was a kid and saw a movie.

Ryan's Daughter. 

There was this crazy wild storm.

And so I was told they are used to wild storms.

But not sure they are used to ones like Lorenzo.

Melissa next name up ..

Unless a close in storm forms....

...it should form in the Caribbean.
Been a year of surprises so time will tell.

I'll be back Tuesday Night.

Much Love, 

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm at Twitter and Instagram.

(as always if you haven't read, keep reading)

The tropics above in all their beauty.

2 Cyclones tell the whole story.

Not very complicated today.

Cat 4 Lorenzo....

...a large, dangerous Tropical Storm Narda.

And Narda is along the coast and causing impacts.

Life threatening dangerous impacts.

So what Narda doesn't have in strength...

..it makes up for in size and sheer weather.

I woke up this morning to 155 MPH Lorenzo.

Impressive and stubbornly strong.

In the EPAC we have close in Narda

This video is in the #blog https://t.co/XLVVLmtkcS & explains more about future possible #tropical development & where to start looking in a week or so... as we move into #October have a very good weekend! https://t.co/cJfVngqgL8

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 27, 2019

Cone for Lorenzo remains the same.

Slow movement and then.....

It takes off like a rocket.

Aiming at Ireland.

And Great Britain.

Narda is trying to slice the Gulf of California.

Some storms do it, it's rare but it happens.

And it brings life threatening deadly concerns.

Mountainous terrain doesn't mix well with Tropical Storms.

Flash floods and mudslides wipe whole towns away.

And dangerous, heavy tropical rain falls along the coast.

The whole time impacting Mexico and the Baja region.

And then the rain moves up across Mexico into Texas.

And beyond creating other impacts.

Again check that out below.

What begins in the EPAC...

..doesn't stay in the Pacific this time.

And as we move into October...

We need to watch and wait and see what happens.

Something will happen.

It's not a matter of one model run...

... or living and dying by models.

It's more waiting for it to come.

The pattern is set up for something.

Will it go further West and impact Texas?

or the Central Gulf of Mexico.

Or be pulled sharper right towards Florida.

Fronts are on the move and dipping.

That ups the ante for problems...

..when something forms in the Gulf of Mexico.

We just really watch and wait.

Enjoy the beauty of Lorenzo from a distance.

Wonder what happens to Narda moisture.

This period of "Indian Summer" will soon leave.

Fronts are scheduled to show up this coming week.

And our focus shifts towards the Carib and the GOM.

But we are always watching the whole basin.

I'll update later today.

Have a wonderful Sunday.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Ps... Just remember Hurricane Season isn't about the Summer.

It's about the Fall... that's when real trouble happens.

Summer goes away and kids go back to school.

Vacation is over......

and yet the Hurricane Season ain't over yet!