Tropics Friday. Karen's Chapter Ending. Lorenzo For Now Spinning Beautiful. What Else is Down the Road in the Tropics? Time Will Tell in this Circle Game.

We can see Karen slowly coming apart.

Lorenzo taking up half the ocean it seems.

#tropical update #blog out in a bit. Nothing new to add but to watch the tail end of fronts coming down as we move into #October. Sorry bit breathy on some meds. Doing so much better. Thanks for ur patience & updates while I’ve been there flint https://t.co/vZ3Rogvgxa pic.twitter.com/OpLB0SjBZF

— BobbiStorm (@BobbiStorm) September 27, 2019

Hard to find a "Tropical Storm" where Karen is...

Lorenzo yeah...

The ULL is off the coast of FL.. visible.

Cones and facts below.

Karen's ever diminishing cone above.

Lorenzo below.

Lorenzo's wind path...

...far from land.

Discussion.

Some fluctuations in intensity are expected....

The last chapters are being written on Karen currently as the NHC has downgraded her to Tropical Depression status ... kind of breaking the news to her gently I suppose... as we all knew this was happening though not sure Karen expected it. Karen has always been able to "pulse up" when needed, but as we saw with the overwhelming shear aimed at Jerry... she too will respond in kind and in theory go quietly off into the books for 2019. She was always a questionable tropical storm vs a strong tropical disturbance, though to stay together so long there was probably some center there holding her together even if the NHC and recon had problems at times trying to pin it do
wn. Karen impacted several places with strong, heavy rains, flooding and creating power outages.

Good discussion from NHC. You can see from the image above this chapter seems to be ending for Karen and Lorenzo will take a long time to come apart as it's incredibly big, beautiful and far out at sea not hurting anyone.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/

MIATCDAT3+shtml/271442.shtml

Lorenzo is still "oh my gosh gorgeous" but on it's way, stair stepping down in intensity as hurricanes like people have a prime period in their life that can never be totally maintained but he will be remembered for being strong like Hurricane Gabrielle was years ago in 1989. 

Lorenzo above.

Gabrielle below.

Note hos similar Lorenzo and Gabrielle look.

And yesterday Lorenzo looked more like Gabrielle.

Link to info on a forgotten intense hurricane.

Overshadowed by it's brother Hugo in 1989

And looking forward.

Remember to watch the tail end of fronts.

We are scheduled to have strong fronts soon.

And strong fronts race through and then...

...go flat somewhere off the East Coast.

Sometimes in the Gulf of Mexico.

There's a lot of model innuendo...

..and discussion by good meteorologists.

On something forming in mid October.

Don't hold me to October 15th...

2nd week to end I'd say.

Weather is FLUID.

So it dances to it's own tune.

We try and keep up.

Models adjust in real time.

Then the NHC adjusts in real time.

Being honest they are very model driven now.

Being honest we all are.

Going to rest the rest of the day.

And I'll update Sunday.

I was pretty sick.

Why do we say "pretty sick" I don't know.

No one is "pretty" when that sick.

But on the road to recovery.

Even without make up I look better than Karen.

So models for way out into the future.

And know any front that delivers a punch...

...could deliver tornadoes somewhere.

...and then possibly tropical development.

Time will tell.

Far off in the distance images of GFS and EURO.

Both show a dangling cold front...

..parked over warm water.

So keep that in mind while...

...looking for pumpkins this week.

Or doing the Jewish New Year.

Fall... end of summer.

Beginning of the new year.

Winter off in the distance...

Summer moves into the rear view mirror.

Transition of time.

Prime time for Major Hurricanes way too often.

2 long term images from www.windy.com

When you have time they are good to donate to.

As Mike from www.spaghettimodels.com says..

I give a $5 tip at a restaurant....

... give them a tip they are helpful.

That goes with Levi Cowan too.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Cost them money to run those sites.

I write... no real costs involved.

Even if I give valuable information.

I write the way Mike talks.

We can both go on and on forever.

So where do we go from here?

I'm going offline.

Letting antibiotics knock my infection out.

Now that the tooth issue is gone.

And I mean that literally...

The sinus issue is center stage.

Antibiotics bugging my stomach.

I'll save you the details.

But I had a huge headache last night.

So stayed offline...

Resting, drinking tea.

(not too warm because oral surgery)

And hey got lots of Halo Ice Cream!

Watching fall color from my window.

The view from my bed.

That tree rarely shows color until late October.

It's early this year.

I think Dorian may have shaken it up.

I remember after Matthew that happened.

Or winter will come soon...

Heard a rumor of 40s and 50s October 4th or 5th.

Time will tell.

But know while y'all complaining how hot it is..

...on the East Coast and in the Deep South.

It's cold and stormy with early snow in the NW.

Eventually winter will show up here too!

Have a beautiful Fall Weekend!

Or an Indian Summer Weekend!

Enjoy the experience... 

... it's part of a change.

Karma is funny. In 1989 I thought on naming a baby Gabrielle if it was a girl as I was expecting and Gabrielle was a beautiful storm. It was a boy, his name is Mendy (common name in Chabad) and then I found out my Great, Great, Great Grandfather's name was Gabriel doing Ancestry and laughed thinking how close we were... a few months ago my daughter had a baby boy and her husband is an Israeli and they chose the name Gabriel for my grandson. I told my son-in-law that was amazing, you knew it was a family name? He smiled and shook his head no and said "what goes around comes around" and it's true. So I ended up with a grandson Gabriel vs a daughter named Gabrielle. Both good names and yet many forget Gabrielle because 1989 was all about Hugo. 2019 is far from over... and come December looking back we will see if any hurricane comes along that rivals Dorian and though that sounds impossible... last year this time of year we had no thoughts on Michael becoming a Cat 5 landfalling hurricane. The tropics always hold surprises, much like life.

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... I don't go personal as much these days.. but my daughter Miriam (Gabriel's mother) is an artist as is her brother and another sister... art runs in our veins whether we are painting, writing or creating music. The video reminded me of Miriam doing art somewhere... won't say where...

And sorry for any typos, writing today was therapeutic (it's a blog.. diary online) and going to leave it however it ends up... so hope you enjoyed.

My brother Ron took a picture...

...he's into photography.

Big circle there.. like an eye.

Miami Marine Stadium....

...waiting to come to life again.

Artists kept it alive.

Old pictures.

Miriam on the left and Rivky on the right.

Not twins... but they used to play the twin game.

We're captive on the carousel of time... 

enjoy the ride always.