Tropical Storm Bill Forming .. Aims at Texas & Beyond... Sam Champion Enjoys Spaghetti Models As Much As I do..

Visible Loop

Nice spin...

Waiting on Bill or some upgrade of the designated system known as Invest91L. Either way the track map is up on the NRL site and that's pretty much a "go" for lift off..

Tracks are for now bundled tightly.

Like computer cords hidden out of sight.

(note NRL takes the right side of the cone)

Early morning visible 

Good Tweet this morning. 

No hype, tells it like it is.

Says it all for now.

It's a complicated set up. On one level this is not a "strong" hurricane with high winds and record storm surge about to slam into Galveston, about to put it back into the 19th Century... BUT.. Bill has the potential to cause wide spread damage over a large area due to flooding rains and a strange set up that simplistically speaking may make him stronger over land than he is over the water. Sort of a "Landcane" or large scale weather event.

Understand, in ways, that is good. Why is that good? Because statistically speaking the United States gets most of it's moisture from tropical systems like this vs snow melt. Let's be specific... the growing area of the Plains and the parched thirsty parts of Texas and Oklahoma get moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the constant moisture brought up from the tropics. Not ALL tropical waves become Hurricane Camille or Katrina, but most make their way up towards land. We have a bountiful growing season for produce of all kinds... because we get the moisture to sustain crops! Can't have a "breadbasket" without rain....

You can watch this popular loop to see the bright orange flowing up towards the US.

In areas where they have had too much rain that is BAD.
In areas DESPERATE for rain..that is good.

Life is that simple.

Life is all about location.

South New England is hoping or RAIN from Bill . . .

Those in Texas do not want more heavy rain... 

Keep in mind the conveyor belt of tropical energy from AFRICA

Note the GOM circled where Bill is pulling it together.

Note it's not down off the coast of South America.

Note the small waves coming in under the radar.

This is the set up that had Camille in 1969 forming in the Carib.

Note the arrow I drew onto the map.

Camille just looked like an overnight star.

She formed when conditions became favorable.

Much like Bill could do a bit further to the West.

Before it hooks East or NE.

Time will tell.

Also, Camille did massive amounts of damage far inland.

Camille as not just all about landfall..

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/08/19/unprecedented-rain-hurricane-camilles-deadly-dlood-in-the-blue-ridge-mountains/

Statistically weak storms do more damage from inland flooding.

Bill needs watching.

The NHC and NWS are watching

We are all watching...

I'll be back with more information sooner rather than later!

I'll update when we have hard data.

And, next model runs will have data from recon.

Better data.. better models.

And, lastly... 

Nice compliment on www.spaghettimodels.com

From Sam Champion this morning.

To be honest it's on low as I write waiting for an update on "Bill"

So wasn't sure I heard it without asking him.

And that's true.. watch them all the time too!

Their morning show is the best in town!

Very proud to be a part of the SpaghettiModels page.

I use it ALL the time.

If a picture is worth a thousand words...

Mike's images, grids, maps are worth a million words.

So much information. So easy to use!

Besos Bobbi