Hurricane Harbor: Barbie Astronaut VS Lego Kitchen Momma. Warm Water Wrightsville Beach. A Day at the Beach

The link for this beautiful loop is below

It is also on bottom left of

www.spaghettimodels.com

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

Noting 2 things here.

1. Warm tropical energy has been flowing NE up along the East Coast. It pulls away with each weak late season cold front and edges back again. Watch it over time and you will see why areas close in are prime time problems waiting to happen this hurricane season. Note the water at Wrightsville Beach yesterday was 81 degrees. That is warm enough to accommodate a tropical system. Note, my husband asked the guy at the pier if that was correct... and he insisted it was ... as it's rare in early June for the water to be that warm. Happens some years. Those are the years you need to watch..

2. There is a small roll forming and a bubble around a tropical wave at around 33W. Not expecting this wave to suddenly be named, but it is worth noting even the NHC puts into their comments "embedded in a moderate moist environment" so it bears watching even though the models are not talking about it. The models are still toying with long term possibilities in the GOM in about 10 days or so. Note often energy from a west bound wave help light the ignition on an area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean south of Cuba waiting for a spark to ignite it into more than just tropical rain.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS NEAR 
33W MOVING W AT APPROXIMATELY 15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE 
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS.

It's just a wave, but it's there surprisingly.

The problem with strong Highs is waves make it across.

Negative conditions delay development.

Then they form close in...like Camille

Note the current placement of the High

Closed off low in Gulf of Mexico

Forecast model ... just a possibility

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/navgemtc2.cgi?time=2015060800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

My job here is not to re-write the NHC discussion or make fun of the Atlantic because the models are running luke warm on any possible development. My job is to instruct in an informative and sometimes entertaining way people reading my blog on the myriad possibilities out there on any given day. And, when something actually gets model support to explain and inform the model discussion in a way that the lay person can understand and appreciate. There are many sites that wax poetic in numbers and fancy terminology and meteorological equations. I can follow along like the best of meteorologist, however I feel often the passion for weather and the wonder of all Earth Sciences gets lost in the graphs and mathematics of meteorology. And, make no mistake meteorology is all about math and patterns and probabilities along with atmospheric science. But, we get there from day one with our love of :

a) weather
b) clouds
c) observing weather changes
d) love of maps
e) feel of the wind, rain, snow or fog
f) enjoyment of recording, journaling the weather
g) watching the news and the weather
h) all of the above

But if we kept going we would learn in college that meteorology is all about the math. And, often the math scares women off as for some reason be it genetic or just learned behavior women gravitate towards english and history and man gravitate towards math and science. Then again Lego came out with pink and purple Lego to attract the girls and...........often the girls aren't interested or when they are they steal their brother's red, blue and yellow Lego pieces.

Note if you put in the words "Lego for girls" you will get tons of advertisements geared towards parents of girls on what to buy their princesses. Mind you I am as frilly as a girl can get. I love my make up, high heels and perfume but most of my friends are guys and I love Earth Science as much as the next guy. I don't like labels, and I've always hated that men are from Mars and women are from Venus mentality. Again, maybe women are too practical to go into meteorology as it often does not pay the big bucks. I hope to change that by highlighting women in meteorology here on the blog as much as possible.

Note they don't show the little girl in school putting a sun on the weather map (something I was always so excited to do when in the 1st grade) nor do they show her at the beach storm chasing. She is in a tree house, a castle, nothing that leads the little girl to believe she can grow up and be a meteorologist or oceanographer vs a princess with a really pretty house and pool.

I don't mean to trash Lego here but Barbie at least pushed science.

Barbie was an astronaut.

Let's look at Sally Ride

She was born in May of 1951

Let's do the math and just suppose.

Sally Ride had an Astronaut Barbie in 1965 or 1966

It's possible.

Everyone did or knew someone who did...

At least Barbie made us believe we could do anything we wanted.

And....enjoy being a woman.

Sorry but Lego just isn't cutting the mustard for me here gang...

Nuff Said....

One thing I love about meteorologist Lauren Rautenkranz is her honesty and her dedication to increasing her knowledge and expertise in weather forecasting. And, she is passionate about the weather. "She's an enthusiastic storyteller with a passion for weather and forecasting."

And, she lives in a place that is perfect for watching weather.... the Wilmington, North Carolina.