Carib Wave Only Game in Town... Ex invest Flaring Up. African Wave on Hold...

NHC puts a yellow X in the Caribbean this evening giving it low chances of 20% down the road. It also has a yellow X parked over Africa. It's been there for almost 24 hours so wondering if their site is broken or it's being stubborn and refusing to get in the water. I've had kids..sometimes they get like that ya know??

I also get this all the time on their banner. No it's not my computer, every other site is fine. So maybe it is a bit broken. Strange line on the left of the banner. Hmnn...

The yellow X in the Caribbean is the old Invest 97L that was downgraded, but seems not to have read it's press releases. It's been flaring up for the last 24 hours.. possibly even the last 36 hours. Ole John Hope insisted on things sticking around for 36 hours until he gave it any credibility. It flares up, down and back again. Then again it's been doing that since it left the coast of Africa. Something I may add the new wave seems unable to do.. 

The NHC has this cool feature this year where you click on the 5 day graphic forecast. And, suddenly it shows the tracks. Personally I think it should be below the original possibly in a smaller box as most people can't find it and are confused why some people say ZERO% and others quote the NHC as saying it has 20%. A bit confusing... 

My thoughts?

There was a show years back my father loved called "Car 54, Where Are You?" and beginning to feel this way about the much anticipated Cape Verde Wave? As we say in Miami.. "Donde?"  The Caribbean however is not an area where you have to ask where is the other area they are watching. 

Put it in motion...

It's oozy... it's disorganized... and it's moving West slowly in tandem (but slower) than the ULL to it's north. It's possible that the ULL will begin to tickle it and make it break out in convection rather that fits of giggles. To make that simple.. an ULL can and will often ventilate a stubborn wave and enhance convection. The ULL is what looks like a black cane moving towards the Bahamas. It's being pushed west by the tail of energy left behind by Cristobal.

The high combined with air flow around Cristobal zooming down into the Carib pushes everything west. Now note there is another system about to move East.

Anything that does even begin to form will move up towards the Yucatan and get picked up and pulled up... somewhere. It's just too soon to tell as the models are not screaming orgasmically about the wave. In fact the models do not want to develop it. 

 The always excitable Canadian model that gets pushed aside for the seemingly more sexy Euro Model develops the ex-Invest in the Carib and takes it towards Mexico in the GOM as a decent little system. It does less with the Cape Verde Wave surprisingly.  The reason we go to more than 2 models is because they all show us something. It shows a strong high . . .



I might suggest putting up a floater on this system. They have a floater up in the GOM still for the Tex/Mex Invest yet there is NRL Invest for it in addition the NHC has an X over this system in the Carib yet NO floater or NRL Invest. Hello? Am I missing something here? Yeah.. a floater...

Officially this is all they have to say graphically about it.

Currently, it's really the only game in town. Well, until the African Wave moves and is able to swim in the Dusty Atlantic.

Sort of pitiful looking wave there...

Something worth mentioning tonight. Several people have been killed while swimming in strong Rip Currents from Hurricane Cristobal. Three people were killed in Hispaniola from flooding.

http://www.weather.com/safety/hurricanes/hurricane-cristobal-rip-currents-east-coast-bermuda-20140827

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2733477/Three-people-killed-Caribbean-Tropical-Storm-Cristobal-strengthens-moves-north-U-S.html

Just shows you even a storm like Cristobal can takes it's toll on the lives of the people who deal with it both up close and far away. Sad, but true and not all the figures are in yet. Slow moving large storms like Cristobal take a  larger toll than a well organized small Category 1 Hurricane sometimes. Just so much rain... so much flooding... so many teenagers who think they are strong enough swimmers not to worry on rip tide warnings. That goes for adults, tourists and well just about anyone who takes their chances when there are strong rip tides.

So... I'll be back tomorrow with more information. IF the wave in the Caribbean continues over night and maintains it's convection and or builds even stronger convection I think it's time to put up a floater and wonder if Invest 97L can come back to life?

Only time will tell...

Besos Bobbi

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsKZewdhDtk