Hurricane Harbor: Hurricane Cristobal. Not Pretty but a Hurricane. GOM & Atlantic Both Being Watched for potential D & E Storms..

For all the disbelievers....that is Hurricane Cristobal with an eye about to pop out.

Now some may say it's dry air intrusion (not good think Chinese dry wall...) but it's a dry slot in what should be the center of Cristobal.

Now let's look at him from far away...

Looking up at the larger image you can see the dry air that Cristobal is fighting and playing off of..

Think one of those long term romances with an annoying creep that both stimulates and inspires you and at the same time makes you want to collapse in a heap of tears... and then... you wake up the next day and do it again

There's a "dry line" setting up there and Cristobal is reacting the same way some Twister would act out on the Plains but Cristobal will stay with us for way longer than those short term Twisters. He will follow his energy source.... the only path he can take currently. Note I said currently and note that Bermuda has chances of getting something from Cristobal if just high seas as it breezes by...

Note mole like system west bound towards the islands... and note large gyre in the GOM where something could get going later this week...

Again and I do not mean to harp on this but if any moisture gets cut off and left behind from Cristobal it could be a problem. Watching the tropics is a real time occupation or hobby... things change.

Note the area of strong convection to the South of the center of Hurricane Cristobal... if that hangs with it fine and dandy. If not... there could be potential for problems down the road. Watch the odd dance going on there on the NW side of the actual circulation of Cristobal. IF Cristobal would just go... now... it's playing out in real time.. love watching the water vapor loop. It is awesome for all of it's little ripples, cut off lows, high pressure digging down and convection flaring up....

Note the black line is the basic track line...that doesn't change.

The question mark in blue is the area to the south that could get left behind. If Cristobal would wrap up it would not be a question, but with the dry air separating that part of him from his core.. it might be a problem.

And...then there is the Gulf of Mexico gyre with moisture that could get trapped in it and begin to spin. More on that tomorrow. It's at 10% currently by the NHC for odds. Nice how NHC has become like Vegas..an odds maker :)

And all of the covection moisture...energy (see orange, gold, yellow) is connected....one part oozes from here to there and feeds off of eachother... Watch Cris with the area in the GOM and the area in the Atlantic rushing west looking to access more tropical moisture.. energy...gas...

Now back to Cristobal and where he will go next... Bermuda is to the right but he may head towards the Canadian Maritimes.

The cone from Vegas this morning is..

As they so often say it should split the uprights and go left of Bermuda...

Everything in weather is a matter of highs and lows, dark and light.. dry and wet... that's as basic as it gets.

I like the black and white... it's easier to see things that way for me...

color is like the wind that makes the air go round...

but it's as simple as day and night

you can wax poetic on if the wave is high or low

until it hits the water and is able to spin and travel west bound...

it's just a wave over Africa

my tropical poetry for the day...

At some point... a wave will get into the GOM and develop this year most likely...

At some point a wave will develop too close to South Florida and the High will shove it just enough to the left that it will most likely make landfall.

When you have that sort of high out there... anything is possible regarding landfall.

East of FL they are more prone to go NE out to sea with the next front..

South of FL under Cuba the front late in the season will drag it over South Florida (East or West coast)

In the GOM and it's a tropical bull in a china shop and headed towards landfall.

That is the set up this year and you know why?

Because NOTHING is developing FAR OUT.

FAR OUT DEVELOPMENT = FISH STORM.

So............what you may think is a blessing is a problem in disguise...

For surfers.... an offshore storm combined with a strong high will make surf interesting on the East Coast where surfers love to surf but they do not get the big waves there as they do on the West Coast.