Hurricane Fred, Football and Energy..

Hurricane Fred is spinning tonight far out in the Atlantic, the problem is he is going nowhere fast and he is not making much northerly progress. In fact, the new cone of the hour from the NHC has him moving back to the west, sort of gracefully like... an exhausted and weaker storm and westbound for a while.

I'm going to wait til the morning to give my own thoughts on how far west he may get but it is interesting and the models did call this a few days ago. Still, he would have a long, long way to go to affect the U.S. Mainland though I imagine he could get close enough to Bermuda to give it a worry.

This blog tonight is really more about energy than Hurricane Fred, because energy is what it's all about. Hurricanes are nature's way of transferring energy from the equatorial regions to the poles. They bring beneficial rains to the Great American Bread Basket giving America a rich economy where we are able to grow wheat, corn, soy, take your pick or any of the many products that the Midwest puts onto our dining room tables. Wayward Tropical Waves that never make it to be hurricanes work their way west, west-north-west and then northwest towards the Gulf Coast and rain themselves out upon areas further up stream while we turn our attention to the newest wave emerging off the coast of Africa. Somewhere the rain from a weak tropical wave is raining on the plains of Kansas, Nebraska and other farming ports of call. They don't get the wind, they don't get the storm surge, but they get the rain. We really don't give those tropical waves enough respect for their part in keeping our country going. Trust me, those Russian plains don't have anything like we have... and we owe much of that bounty to rain from the tropics.

Only the big organized hurricanes that track around the Atlantic Basin are what we remember. Donna, Hugo, Hazel...the ones that don't pull out and re-curve out to sea or make it up into the Gulf of Mexico. Those are the ones we remember.

Why?

Because they had energy... tons and tons of energy wrapped up in their bands and their storm surge and their exploding, multiple vortexes spinning around nature's equivalent to the Atom Bomb, being thrown like a great white bowling ball at our coastlines.

What makes the difference between a weak wave and a strong hurricane?

Energy. Pure and Simple.

Watched football tonight and took some time away from the message boards where people are now talking about the coming winter, El Nino, a coastal low off the East Coat that is serving up vicious weather without ever getting the dignity of a name and a new area down in the Gulf of Mexico where a storm may be forming if it doesn't rain itself out over Texas tonight. Coastal lows, clinging to the coastline, riding the shore and creating misery but no real wicked weather worthy yet of getting the name Grace.

And, Fred is totally ignored as he lumbers about in the distant Atlantic trying to figure out what to do. Reminds me of that song from Oliver, he is reviewing the situation and trying to make a decision.

Question is.. does he have the energy? Does he have what it takes to go for the gold or even the silver? Don't know. Not sure. He looked really beaten up and tired today for a storm that was just recently a major hurricane. He looked a bit like one of those great pitchers who are sent down to the minor leagues to find their groove again, but can he? Will he? Don't know. Only Fred knows.

He does look a bit better tonight I think as he has stopped his northward movement. Just a bit, subtlety ...

Here's a loop. You can see him struggling against the current in the atmosphere that wants to take him out to sea and yet you can also make out the lower level flow that is westbound.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-avn.html



Pittsburgh played Tennessee tonight on the football field. Amazing game. I love watching Jeb Fisher coach. He is so much fun to watch on a field. Intense, quiet than quirky... great fun to watch. And, as a Dolphin fan I was kind of hoping that Pittsburgh would lose but well, they didn't.

Know why? Energy.

The game went into Overtime and after an amazing battle by both teams the score was tied. Four long quarters ...after the first few that remained scoreless. And, although Pittsburgh fumbled the ball just before possibly scoring and winning the game... they gave the ball over to Tennessee and yet.......they still won in overtime.

Know why? Energy.

They lined up, ready to toss the coin to see who was going to win the coin toss and receive the ball and I looked carefully at the players. The Pittsburgh players were hyped despite losing the ball a few moments earlier. The Tennessee players were sweating, tired...one was running his hands through his hair with this look of "Oh God I cannot believe we are going into overtime." Now, that's what it looked like he was thinking. He was exhausted, his team mate next to him looked tired, stunned. And, I thought... "Oh God, they are going to lose...."

Know why? Energy.

Tennessee gave up. They were tired. They wanted to win, trust me they wanted to win but when you have been watching football as long as I have.. you can see when a team looks like they are going to lose. You can see it in the way they stand, the way they run to the huddle, the way they look in their eyes.

Football is a game of energy, and who has the power and desire to get that ball across the field at any cost. It's not a game for the faint of heart or the weak or meek, it is one hour on the game clock and if it goes into Overtime... the first team that scores wins, game over.

So, I look at Fred out there tonight... does he have the power and the set up to fight a battle against shear and upper level lows and does he have what it takes to make that trek west or will he wander about, make small little loops and then finally catch a ride out to the North Atlantic and possibly end up as rain washing ashore in Cornwall in a Romance Novel or rain in Spain and the Azores?

Takes a lot to play in Overtime and right now... Fred is going into Overtime...

Energy... it's like the legendary bouncing ball, where will it go? Where will Fred go? Can he make it back up into the majors?

Time will tell...

Discussion from the NHC tonight... with the important parts to think on highlighted. Good discussion tonight by Berg, he has been working over time, my gosh where is Jack Beven, he's been quiet ... a few of the old timers have been. Maybe they are resting up to take on one last big storm that may develop later in the month.. we are just now at the peak of the season, you know.. and as the old rhyme goes.. October all over... except of course for football. Perhaps Tennessee will have a chance to have a rematch later in the Playoffs. Who knows.. I'm hoping the Fins get that opportunity but for now..got to give it to them... Pittsburgh has the energy and if they were a storm they would be a Category Six Hurricane!!

"THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND FRED ARE BEGINNING TO COLLAPSE AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT. ONLY A SLOW
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS FRED TEMPORARILY RESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH. ONCE IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT DOES NOT
SHOW AS MUCH OF AN EASTWARD BEND AS THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.
STILL...THE MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND FRED COULD MEANDER A BIT
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE
ACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS."

By the way... there is discussion on the possibility of a storm forming in the Gulf and would someone at TWC please let Mike Seidel come out of the rain in New Jersey already...



By the way, those yellow circles are areas of possible development NOT target practice for Fred to aim for as possible destinations... no, those are less than 30% chances for a new storm to form... while everyone is barely paying attention to Hurricane Fred.

As for Fred... come on Fred, take the ball, tuck it safely away and RUN..accelerate to the Northwest!! This is your chance, your chance to do something... or pack it in and let's call it a day!

Grace is waiting...




Besos Bobbi