Erika Continues Baffling Forecasters Who Disagree with their Best Models

And, she just sits down there doing her thing.

I was wrong on being a Hurricane today it seems, then again everyone has been wrong with this system so far. That bothers me. A storm that does not behave the way it should worries me because IF it does not dissipate then it is going to become a big problem for someone down the road.

That "down the road" appears to be located around Florida in the long term and the Islands in the short term.



See this is my question here? The models have been on the money and working well all season, a few disagreements but mostly very good and the NHC has relied on them heavily. They may go with one more than another and weigh their options a bit but they have done a damn good job using the model guidance. Why throw it out the window now?

There is something hard to define about this storm's future as much as there is about it's current center and direction. But, what we do know is it packs strong winds and a lot of rain, a lot of weather and a history of pulsing up fast at times. And, it has tenacity in its slow crawl across the Atlantic.

So, here we are and now we throw the models out? Why?

From the 11 AM Discussion out of the NHC:

"MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO
NOT SHOW MUCH RELAXATION OF THIS SHEAR...AND ACTUALLY SHOW IT
INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. DESPITE ALL THIS
SHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS"

They follow this up with "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL
CONSENSUS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF ERIKA REMAINING WEAK. IT
SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT...OVERALL...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE
TRACK FORECAST."

So, I have questions and no real answers. Danny had a tight circulation and no convection. Now we have a storm with strong convection and a confusing circulation that is moving more and more west, inch by inch west and the track keeps getting pulled more and more to the left and the NHC themselves admit that they would have moved it more to the left had they believed in the models.

I was busy most of the day, watching Erika spin on my laptop, blackberry and in my head, dancing her way into shear and moving slowly.

Earlier her convection seemed to punch to the northwest towards her center of circulation.

I think the dry air behind her and under her cut her off a bit from her moisture feed in the ITZ and the shear out ahead of her at the entrance to the Caribbean is a storm killer often but then again... the shear came on faster than the models predicted it.

Seems the NHC is back to square one with Erika and she continues to show green on funktop showing some real, serious convective cells inside her extremely disorganized self if you believe their press releases.

Notice here... still green, not a lot of green but a lot of green and a lot of red.. far from a system about to die... I think anyway.



Surfin around online... look at the Miami Herald:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/miami-dade/breaking-news/story/1214103.html

Look at www.stormcarib.com for information about specific locations.

As long as there is breath there is life, as long as there is green and red on the funktop Erika is breathing...

I'll be back with answers when we have some...

Til then...watching Erika to her dance...

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=tropics&
channel=wv

And, I am going to listen to Faith Hill and Carlos Santana do a song together...

What else would a Miami girl listen to but a little bit of Country and a little bit of Caribbean Music... Spanish Jazz ...

Somethings are forever, one of them is Carlos Santana...



Besos for now Bobbi...

Am still a believer in Erika and to my friends in Florida... keep watching her until she passes you by for some other port of call... or swims out to sea..