Olga Discussion and Quick Thoughts on the NHC Discussion #8

I just wanted to say that I've never seen a discussion so poorly written from a scientific view point as the Tropical Depression OLGA Forecast Discussion #8

I'm sorry but what is going on over there? Too much December Partying? Perhaps a lot of the real scientists are on vacation and not aware that Avila is left running the place and writing some sort of OP ED piece of self-glorification on how he has been lucky enough to downgrade this storm. If it wasn't the NHC I'd giggle. If it was a blog it would be cute. If it was a post on Hurricane City or FLhurricane or EVEN maybe, perhaps even better at Storm2K... it would be a cute comment but this is the NHC and it is supposed to be a scientific explanation from a meteorological perspective of what is happening with the tropical entity known as OLGA.. not some fluffy piece on how the sharp shooter Avila has personally added another storm head to his mantel piece. What is he shooting deer? He pat himself on the back so hard he is probably still wheezing. This is not Discussion worthy of the NHC and it has to be a real low point for him... tell it to the fruit guy at Publix, don't tell it to me in a Discussion. Explain to me what happen... as Jim does at Hurricane City.

The thought that Avila is writing this drivel over there and getting paid for it is sort of like pondering on how many millions the Miami Dolphin players are getting paid to lose and piss away their season..

Really, an all time low. I can say this. It's a blog. Heck, it's my blog.

When I go to the NHC and read their Discussion I expect to get quality... not something that reads like an entry in his own personal diary..


I quote from the rambling diary like entry Avila posted:

"ONCE AGAIN...I HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TERMINATE ANOTHER TROPICAL
CYCLONE THIS SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM PILON CUBA
SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED.
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL ESTABLISHED...BUT THERE HAS NOT
BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR
SO. THE CYCLONE IS INITIALIZED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON...PERHAPS AS WE SPEAK."


You want to really see what happened to Olga and explained by a REAL expert??

Listen to Jim at HurricaneCity..
Great explanation and discussion on Olga
http://www.hurricanecity.com/update.htm

Great view of Olga and her "demise" and the rainfall that is going to mix with a frontal boundary (smile, smile) and pull north up over my little house most likely, perhaps as you are reading in a day or so... and rain itself out or help energize the front a bit.

Read all over the web about the path of destruction that was left behind and the rising death toll and devastating dollar losses across an already economically poor region. Olga was some storm..... even if briefly and the NHC relied too heavily on the GFDL ensemble package again.. but hey, we are still only learning why storms behave the way they do.

It's a learning process. We keep learning.

Be well... take care and really... can we get some quality control at the NHC?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/122027.shtml