FLORENCE CONTINUES ON - ULL Develops

On one level not much new has happened and yet there are some "DISCREPANCIES" to think upon and as I watched the water vapor loop last night I noticed the Upper Level Low playing out there in the water like a Stingray about to stab Florence ... who may or may not deal with it well. Again, Upper Level Lows remain the protector of the US Coastline better than any Coast Guard could dare to be.

If this doesn't develop into one mean baby it will only be because of that Upper Level Low.

That is what we see by watching the Water Vapor Loop.

Those who are in love with other sats think I'm nuts on the Water Vapor but it's not because I like expensive lava lamps.. it is because they are the crystal ball of the set.. the one that tells the tale.

And, what I saw last night... was that upper level low. All I could do was watch the upper level low evolving.

Sometimes phantoms show up clearer than the RED HERRING and in this case... you can watch Florence try to get her act together all you want but the Upper Level Low compels you to keep staring at it and wonder thinking............ again?

So, notice here in the wording directly from the NHC: (rhome with Beven's help.. beautiful writer)

"WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE IS BEGINNING TO FRACTURE CAUSING THEFORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO CAUSING A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FORSTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE CYCLONE. SHOULD FLORENCE GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW..."

SHOULD FLORENCE GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW..........
YES BEVEN.. TELL US WHAT WILL HAPPEN...


and then the kicker, the kicker of all kickers... suddenly there are discrepancies. You never want to see discrepancies because they are a doorway, a window to possibilities... to tropical peeping Toms to watch and enter... different possibilities entering through the window of discrepancies:

"THE GLOBALS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES IN THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THEEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN THE DEGREE...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD TURN."

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm deep sigh.

I say that because I have a weather friend who insists this storm is not so simple and not a real fish and has a good possibility to shoot the rapids between the trough and the Upper Level Lows and cause damage somewhere to the left of the line...

So...those are my tropical thoughts. You don't want my non-tropical thoughts as they have something to do with blackberries and Aspen quivering in the breeze that comes across a golf course of uncertainty. Causes stress. They both do... the tropical troubles and the red herrings.

I'll post more later today if something develops that needs to be mentioned.

Have a good Wednesday and let's get over the hump so we can move on to tomorrow.

Always, Bobbi