96L 60% Chances to Develop. Rolling Along Low... SAL Not Letting 96L Develop Quick Nor Go Anywhere But Westbound Currently. Close In Threat Down the Tropical Road.... Possibly, Closer In. Islands Pay Attention Tho They Really Want Some Rain!

 

This is Invest 96L in all it's glory.

60% down from 70% yesterday.

NHC site shows the location well.

It also shows what a bottom heavy wave this is.

Invest. A nice core and a wide moisture pocket.

Let's do the Earthnull Test.

Can you see it without zooming in.

There is it.... still a wave.

But it's got a shape.

A broad circulation.

Low down too. 

That is not a bad look....
....it's a very distant Invest.

Has this little area ... like a center.

Keeps on going, impressively.

In reality this is a good looking wave, it's an Invest not just a wave. The problem is models jumped all over it like it was the most exciting thing they had ever seen and everyone went wild with high expectations. There were so many expectations that it's impossible to live up to any unless it's immediately named DOLLY and expected to get across the Atlantic. Even prior to Dolly Parton's very sad death, the name was always in play and well today it's an odd poignant asterisk to this Hurricane Season. No one wants Dolly to be a Major Hurricane destructive and deadly, and yet no one wants to see a wimpy 1 to 2 day nothing storm neither. Odd how this played out this way but Dolly always believed there was a reason and God was in charge so will just say let's go with that and there's a reason the next name up is indeed Dolly. 

I always thought this was a long tracker and I didn't agree with nor liked the early models showing quick development and moving up and away into the wide open Atlantic. Why? Because it's embedded in Saharan Dust and mostly to it's North so how could a wave, especially a big one, pull together quickly and bust through all that Saharan Dust???

There is Invest 96L down there...

...trapped by the Sahran Dust.

I mean it's a WALL .... a Do Not Go sign.

So what is 96L doing?

Siding along low hoping to get...

...to the other side.

Honestly I don't know.
but this scenario has problems.

Current model that everyone loves.

The AI models are awesome I will admit.

I love them but will this verify?

As always a new model runs soon.

My biggest concern and always was is that 96L makes it across the Atlantic spinning along but not quite a storm or maybe gets a name, starts to give it up to the shear closer to the Caribbean and arrives near Virgin Islands or PR or just to the North and it can become a big problem close in that it could not become distantly out in the MDR in an atmosphere ladden with Saharan Dust. This is not so much a problem now because El Nino but because SAL is in total charge of the MDR today. Closer to Islands, shear keeps it in check. Close in where water is warm, shear is lower and well go and bet the village on a strong trough, we are not there yet trust me I know. Later in September (hope and pray) less to worry but early September is expected to be way too hot and close in concerns go up so... pay attention, stay aware!

SAL gets weaker closer in.

Less shear near the Bahamas.

Near Turks and Caicos. 

We will see but remember it can thrive close in...

....but it can't thrive out in the MDR.

And THAT is what worries me.

A thriving TS or Hurricane pulling up into Atlantic.

No problem.

A thriving strengthenig storm close in.

Big Problem.

Hey it could deravel and become an open wave..

...which in theory it is in ways.

Invests have potential.

They have some spin.

A vague spot we track.

They are not Tropical Depressions.

So stay tuned.

Enjoy the day.

Tomorrow is Lunar Eclipse Day!

YAY..a live Lunar Eclipse across the USA

Pray no clouds hide my view..

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

Not so long ago.

Imagine having Dolly Parton..

..as your Godmother?

Wow... 

Amazing.