Updated 5 PM TD 2 Still Forecast by NHC to Become TS Bertha ... Recon Went In. TD 2 aka Wannabee Eg Is Sitting & Spinning Owning the Eastern Gulf - Lots of Room to Breathe

 

Recent Cone. 

Similar to last.

Nudged a wee bit to the South.

It's all a guessing game.

Generally she'll pull West.

Currently, as of now.....
..everyone in this close up should pay attn!

Old saying.

6 of 1 ...half a dozen of another.

My husband is cooking dinner as I do not cook Sunday Night :) and I'm watching women's gynastics on mute... so much spinning. I was looking for local weather for fun to see what they said, but no news or weather and left it on. I know what we drove through so I know, just curious on local experts. Spinning must be the name of the day. NASCAR is at North Wilkesbor Speedway and weather has been an issue as we have had crazy thunderstorms all day. Rarely watch gymnastics but the theme of the day is spinning

Watching Miss TD 2 the contestant for the name Tropical Storm Bertha SPIN and when I say spin, her spin takes up the entire Eastern Gulf. 

Yes she has a dry air problem.

But the same flow that's driving down the dry air...

..is also feeding her with moisture.

To be a Tropical Storm and thrive....

...she needs moisture.

She is breathing... will give her that.
She's definitely spinning.........

Short term forecast is for her to continue and spin, she lost a bit of latitude but that's more (in my opinion) looping or turning on a dime around and around. Check out those storms explode across the backbone of Cuba to the Southeast. In color on IR this is incredible to watch and the way the 2026 Hurricane Season is forecast to go ... enjoy the spinning. Time will tell where exactly she goes and how close to the coastline she gets. Does she slide along just to the South of Hurricane House and wave at Josh (@icyclone) sitting on his porch watching the waves and feeling the breeze or does she give him a whole lot more than a wave?  And, if she slides along to the West or North of West she will cause a lot of weather drama on her way to possibly Texas. Texas has been in the flow for rain and as much as I hate to say it, it's logically it would, could draw her closer. And then what?  This all comes down to timing. The longer she stays off shore and out in the Gulf.... if the dry air begins to weaken she could become stronger than many expect. If not she'll just be the star of the show this week as we wait to see what she's really got under the hood!

Check out the power on her SW side.

Look at the curvature bands to the ENE.

And to the NNW it's all spinning.

Worth remembering that this is a developing system. This is a work in progress. The center could change and get relocated. I'm not saying it will...I am saying ......it's a work in progress and large, systems such as this sometimes have competing centers. And small systems are easier to fall apart than this spinning gyro that's been spinning since Friday at least. Again the ULL was involved this is NOT a tropical wave.

Be back later. Eggplant Parmigiana on the menu here though some people will be eating hamburgers and others shrimp tonight. Just don't eat the lettuce ...oh the 2020s just keeping 2020ing. 

Keep reading if you did not already.

I do not usually listen to this song.

But it's classic for a spinner and ......
we got a spinner!!

I live on instinct so ....

...enjoy.

What highway will Bertha take...
...and where will she go??

NHC has her a TS down the road.

incredible..........

***** 11 AM below*****

Doesn't that pic just scream TD!!

And NHC upgraded before recon ...

And we have a Cone!

Some quick comments here as I will update the blog later today after Recon gets in there and we have direct data. After that more so when that data is put into the next run of models with the data from the recon put into the models. Either way, TD2 forecast by NHC to be TS Bertha will lollygag around in the Gulf close in before finally making her move. I'll add to that never trust the first Cone to know for sure where it will go. As it is close in and it's a large as they say "sprawling" system impacts will be felt far from the exact center of the cone. 

Short Term: It should stay in the same location, sort of anchored a bit while it tries to build on it's great bones. It is lacking on moisture currently and while storms flare up it needs to hold onto that moisture some... to become Big Bad Bertha! 

Long Term: IF current models verify it gets pushed West by the expanding High Pressure to it's East and models currently favor the Go West Girl paths vs up into FL and Georgia. Again we need better info or as we used to say Down South ... More Better Info.

It's quite noticeable to anyone looking at the Water Vapor Loop that dry air (that dark Navy Blue) to it's NNE sliding into it's center. It's also easy to see how large this system is and it has maintained this large for the last few days. Also it has this "need to spin" and that is inherent in the formulative factors involved here. When you have an ULL that mixes it up with other features it is more likely to spin first than the opposite way while watching a very large, wet African Wave lumber across the Atlantic in search of spin that generally happens down the road. While there are always those Prime Time African Waves that come off with Low Pressure from day one. They are few and far between and more so will be this year. 

So let's let her spin. Let's let the NHC do their thing and drop dropsondes into her and then review the data. And for the rest of us we can defitnitely enjoy the aesthetics of how "pretty" she looks. Big yes, but look at her spin!  More to say later. 

The link to the excellent discussion from the NHC is below. 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/191452.shtml?

Also remember that this should move slowly and as it's large and is prone to sudden flare ups of convective energy areas nearby close to the storm over land may fefel it's impact even while it's far offshore. 

Does it go to Nola?

Maybe Mississippi then slide into Louisiana.

It Texas in "to do list" for travel?

Stay tuned.

Stay aware.

IF it can mix out the dry air...

..with that incredible spiral...

well it could intensify faster than expected.

NHC has it at 60 MPH

Stay tuned...

Song added in later so check back later

(breakfast is being served...)

Ps always expect the unexpected!