NHC Upgraded to TD.... Then They Did It Again & Upgraded to TS Gabrielle. Gabby is Still in the Process of Getting Herself Together... Finding Her True Center... Her True North. Oh Keep an Eye on Carib As It May Come Alive Soon.. Closer in.

 

NHC Cone for Gabrielle

Early this morning the powers that be at the NHC decided to upgrade Invest 92L to Tropical Depression status despite the fact that it was obvious it generally (in most years) would have fallen short of the parameters used to upgrade.  It had been in the process of trying to close off a center in a complicated set up that was forecast to be complicated. Yes, I know ASCAT implied and yet far from land, when not even Recon could be sent there yet they upgraded to TD status and it officially beame SEVEN or as I write TD7 for clarity; 7 does not need to be spelled out. I'm sorry SEVEN sounds like a movie title some Steven would produce. Then at 11 AM they further upset those who could not believe this was upgraded to Tropical Depression status by upgrading it again to Tropical Storm status as well as relocating it to the North as one would a magnet on a refrigerator. Bottom line is we now officially have Tropical Storm Gabrielle on the map... in it's relocated position.

It's my job here to relay information and mostly to inform people on the storm in a way that is easy to understand when there are watches, warnings up for landfall or down the road landfall so people can best prepare. It's my "weather diary" so at times I have gone off on tangents where ranting on things in my life gave me some sense of peace after I got the words out and at a time of year few were watching the tropics.  

It is what it is and I'm relaying the information. In truth it's way out in the middle of the ocean and so far there is no threat of landfall and most are just calling it a Fish Storm and writing it off. To be fair there is no "all clear" for Bermuda. Some, who obsess on ACE statistics, are watching it carefully to see if it ups the ACE to the original forecasts for this hurricane season. I'm not an ACE girl, more into Hurricane History, some ongoing research and chasing weather and storms when I get the opportunity.

Personally, I'd have waited to upgrade it until this morning at 11 AM as it was still a system in the process of forming and now it's naked center has been verified on satellite imagery and that is why the NHC repositioned the center to the North. But it's not my pony, not my show, I'm just writing my blog and that's all I will say.  

This is a visual image of Gabrielle.

If u try hard you can "see" a naked center.

I love naked centers.

They show clarity....

...when convection is being sheared.

This is....not a healthy system.

Let's look at Discussion with some images.

Images verify the discussion.

As they said it's not well organized.

(as you can see)

It has an elongated presentation. 

They chose a mean center of swirls.

"at best marginally well defined"

"depression named Gabrielle"

(oh.... huh? would be my thoughts)

"forecast has been adjusted to the North"

Note my post on X.

positions 6 hours apart ... no words.

So I am going to keep it short and polite.

I'll add center didn't jump, it was trying to form.

I will update later today. Models have been beyond less than stellar this year. They have done poorly with development and forecasting the appearance of the no show MJO. Currently we are not really expecting the MJO that has once again become a No Show in the Atlantic. Weather is fluid, not carved in stone and time will tell if it does a pop up surprise appearance. There is an area in the SW Carib that shows possible promise down the line for development in a region in line with CLIMO. I'll also add when speaking on CLIMO it's sort of a term that embraces "in most years" and there are exceptions to every rule and this year is one of them. We are way ahead of CLIMO in the Carolinas where I have my windows wide open, it's cool and we have leaves turning uncharacteristically early and that's because this is not the first time I have opened my windows and enjoyed the cool air. Adding in here I'm that person who keeps my AC on 70 or 71 as I like it cooler and so if my windows are wide open you know it's in the 60s outside. Fronts are making it down into Florida, South Florida and a few have made it into the Caribbean.

While Gabrielle is interesting...emerging.

More interested in closer to home ...

...where there could be impacts.

Should something form there.

Consistent convection over warm water...

....is something to watch.

While there is no support from the  "less than stellar models" I'm watching the SW Carib and noticing the increased moisture present cut off from a frontal boundary and keeping my eye on it should pressures begin to drop and forecasts begin to pick up on something. Normally we watch the CAG in October, but August this year was Augtober as Chick on X would call it and September 17th feels more like early October so watching the CAG in that area or any dangling front would be logical. With everything shifted so far South already this September, any tracks may be low from the Florida Keys to Cuba vs NW Florida. The one exception here is during a period of "Indian Summer" when warm temperatures briefly return and fronts evaporate the door may be wide open to a landfalling storm in the Gulf IF (big IF this year) were to form and need to be watched. So keep on watching.

Ending with a good post from Jim Cantore on X that speaks on the reality of what is going on and if you are on X you know many experts are not happy with the upgrade now vs later. And some to be fair are actually freaking the low by OBX that ended up moving North into Virginia more than Carolinas (again not great modeling) didn't get an upgrade to Hybrid or Subtropical and yet this messy mix of centers far out in the Atlantic was upgraded to Gabrielle. Is what it is. I write about it, not my job (thankfully) to be a good government employee and follow along and I say that as someone who worked in a government run library and so I know a lot about how the government works and what it's like to work there. Ps it was a great job, I enjoyed it more than when I ran a College Library even though the College paid me more, I had great benefits (including free tuition for my family) and it was a block from the ocean and I could run over on my long lunch hour and chase storms at the beach. 

I will add it was actually very honest discussion today from the NHC and I do appreciate that.

I'll upgrade later as needed ... have a wonderful day. 

Besos BobbiStorm

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm mostly weather ...in absence of named storms I  may have veered off some to football. Elsewhere my posts are whatever I'm in the mood to post such as Insta. X I try to keep for weather.

I've always loved Dolly.

She's a Capricorn... like me ;)

so leaving this with some good words.....

...and a classic old song.