92L at 90% Anyday Now.... The Big Tropical Wave is Consolidating Slowly.... New AOI Yellow 20% African Wave. September Got the Wave Train Going

 

90% in 7 days... 90% in 2 days...

Maybe tomorrow?

Compare and Contrast with 2 AM.

Ever have one of those nights when you just can't sleep through the night? Had a few lately. I'm sure I slept 20 minutes or 45 minutes between staring up at the clock as the minutes and hours ticked on. I woke up at 2:15 AM and checked on Invest 92L that was up at 90% in 7 days and 80% in 2 days and that's pretty much a done deal! Seriously kind of cute how they are connected. Mike from Tampa would say "love bugs!" but no two areas of interest in a til recently a slow September. 

Speaking of Mike.

Using his middle grid today.

Models agree mostly on track.

Diverge some on intensity.

How fast does it develop?

Questions.

Right now watching it form...

...in real time.

Seeing which models do best.

So around 4:15  AM while trying to get back to sleep after I slept a little I decided while it was nice to lie in bed, I wasn't ralling asleep. Restless, got up and went online. Made myself some chamomille tea thinking I'd go back to sleep. Halfway through attempting to sip the tea I realized this was silly, put the tea away and made coffee. And that was a good idea, although I had no idea it the sun gets up so late these days. 

Writing while waiting for NHC to update at 8 AM though often it comes in before that. I will update the blog later today as events evolve towards development. It's kind of good to be up as I put on TWC old school style and catching their coverage at Virginia Beach that's getting steady rain, boats are bobbing around a bit and sure they are happy with just a Coastal Low. The strongest winds so far there are 45 MPH gusts.  Coastal Carolina Lows have been a thing all season, even Chantal was one in some ways but she made landfall and sputtered out after moving over my house. 

We have to watch out for Bermuda regarding what should be Gabrielle. So far we have been lucky. I'm concerned on the SW Carib or areas close in ...in the Gulf where the water is so hot it's hotter than a hot tub. Often strange, seemingly slow seasons pick up speed late in September and in October the monster storm we never really saw with landfall impacts is simmering, growing in size and intensity down somewhere in the Carib. I really, really hope I am wrong on this one. 

I watch this part of the basin carefully.

I watch to see the fronts.

 Is the door is open or closed for landfall.

Moisture has been steady in SW Carib.

From there... it surges up.

At some point this could be a problem.

Note anything that does not curve up...

...goes West into the Carib.

Wave train.

New wave. 

Old wave.

Does the pattern break?

Stay tuned.

Stay alert!

Stay aware.

Stay prepared!

Have a wonderful day!

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather....mostly.

Elsewhere whatever

My father loved Simon & Garfunkle.

He loved Willie Nelson.

He loved when the Saints go matchin in...

He had ecclectic tastes.

Suppose I got that from him....

...so a 2 for 1 today.

Wake up BIG Gabrielle.

She's not really gonna be a Gabby...

Best advice I can give anyone... 

...live a life extraordinary with no regrets :)

Enjoy the day.

Enjoy the song.

Enjoy the dance.

Dance in the rain if you can ....