3 Areas on the Map. 1 is More Important to Watch ....tho Nearby Humberto May or May Not Inluence 94L Most Likely the Future I Sto

 

94L is at 80% in 7 Days - 40 in 2 Days 

Humberto to it's Right.

Gabrielle exiting right stage.

Attention turns to 94L

Obviously while it's Red Formation Zone is very close to the State of Florida, most are thinking it's a Carolina Storm or a replay of Chantal. The pattern this year has been for coastal set ups close in riding up towards OBX (& VA) then out to sea. But.....do we get through the year with all of them exiting stage off shore of OBX or does one break the mold. If so is this the one.

From Mike's Awesome Weather Page...

...using the grid here.

Note he has radar there you can watch.

Live...real time.

Top image shows two blobs.

That's an illusion.

One will be the real deal center.

Dvorak Satellite Image above.

Cuts through the noise.

A useful tool for NHC.

is that Curly Q the developing center???

...or just an illusion?

In this case...this looks like a center trying...

..tryting to develop.

This is the message tonight, as I look at imagery and modeling, it's too soon to know what will be as there are many intangibles. When I say that I am not just talking on what Humberto does but literally where the I storm actually forms a well defined center. Models, early on, are run on a supposed area of formation an  X marks the spot we think it is ..........as it's not a hurricane......it's not a tropical storm and it's not even a tropical center it's a good looking tropical wave with promise and being "investigated" and named Invest 94L.  Once we have a center models will have better, more reliable output and so til then they models bounce around a bit. You may wake up tomorrow and show no storm yet, a system about to get a name with forecast tracks to Florida, the Bahamas... the Carolinas or out to sea following Humberto. It's an actual crap shoot with lots of moving parts.

Should Humberto intensify could it pull Imelda out to sea or into it in some wild tantric dance?

Sure. If Imelda forms and much depends on where Imelda is in relationship to Humberto at all times down the line. Oh and the front that depending on who you listen to is either diving down fast or dawdling. It's a classic set up add in the Upper Level Low that so far it's followed to it's NW and the Humberto. I'd say that it'll follow the ULL anywhere, but who knows it's 2025. NHC is trying to juggle a lot of balls and keeping them in the air all at the same time. Neat trick....  makes for a difficult job to even try and forecast with confidence. I'd think til then they will go with "low confidence" but at some point it gets nailed down.  Also throw in the random wrench of "what if it loops" as some discussion shows it could follow Humberto, halt in motion and then get caught and begin to loop back.

Could this get anymore complicated?

I'll update tomorrow. 

The front is up in the upper left-out there somewhere.

The Upper Level Low is there in Bahamas.

(it deserves it's own name...)

94L maybe the I storm near PR*

Humberto off to the ENE of it.

And Gabrielle out at sea on it's way...

...to Portugal.   (wow circled the Atlantic)

*Remember I have mentioned waves near PR.

We have had several strong waves near PR/VI

And here we are watching Invest 94L

Pattern recognition is a thing.

If not for 94L & Humberto.

This would be a big story.

Rock of Gibraltar (weather forecast...hmnn)

Any further South and it returns to where it formed...

..well rolled off of Africa as a Wave.

Humberto above...models turn it out to sea...

eventually

Again Humberto's forecast has a ?

It's called future Imelda

Should this Invest get a name!

Remember 2019 Imelda.......

....was tangled up with an Upper Level Low.

Does history repeat?

It was the ULl that was dogging Humberto.

Oh........

So remember that.

Will go into more detail tomorrow.

Stay tuned.

Stay prepared.

Stay aware!

Have an awesome Thursday!!

Sweet Stormy Dreams...

Which one is the beauty?

Which one is the beast?

Time will tell

Enjoy the song..