97L 80% at 8 AM Long Tracker - Closer In to FL & Carolinas there's this Gyre that's gyrating Causing Rain. Erin Name in Play.... 97L Nearing Cabo Verde Today.

9 AM

8 AM - 80% in 7 days

30% in 2 days.

NHC leaving the door open to upgrade.

Early or late?

1st before I forget.

96L is that yellow blimp....

vertical blimp.

96L found an escape hatch

Will 97L ????

Big question everyone is wondering.

This set up is crazy and dangerous. 80% before impacting Cabo Verde. Models all scream "long tracker" and most of the ones we pay attention to are screaming even louder "Major Hurricane!!" 

If a pic is worth a thousand words.

This should be worth 2,000 words.

...below tropical weather discussion on 97L

Currently moving W towards Cabo Verde Islands.

Expected to move WNW later in the week.

From the wonderful Spaghetti Models

Good grid. 

Shows the story Sunday AM

Extra Credit!

Mimic

I don't like to ignore the whole tropics.

Florida getting a whole lotta tropical rain.

Star of the Hour is 97L

Far away and a long way to go....

Really consolidating in a hurry.

97L is in a hurry to grow up! Reminds me of those girls who wear their mother's pearls, put on high heels and try to do a dance routine before they can barely walk. I was that girl. Put on a song and I thought I was a ballerina or a tango dancer and yes I knew the difference at a young age. 

So many questions the NHC is dealing with today regarding the immediate track of 97L while everyone in every city along the Hurricane Coastline thinks it's coming for them. And, others just watch it and say "recurve, recurve!!"  

NHC will do what the NHC does, that's their job and the buck stops there. Never enough bucks for the NHC but they do the best job with what they have nailing down the best track!

Using EURO weathernerds.org today.

Any small variation in the actual track can bring this further South into the Islands directly and then the Caribbean or up and over and miss the Islands totally and then make Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas concerned it won't recurve up into the Atlantic the way let's say Dex did. Chantal however rode up the East Coast as it was forming and smashed into the Carolinas.  Long run on sentences are okay for a long tracker as 97L is forecast to be..........   

That was then ...this is now.

close up....

1. Hurricanes that form fast and furious often recurve up into the Atlantic way before Bermuda.

2. It's gaining girth and somewhat laying low with a large cloud signature.

3. It's showing signs of having a strong center, a real "there" there... 

4. Forecast shows high builds in and it gets across the pond near the Islands.

5. Then ...........which way does it go?

6. How strong will it be?

I have questions as I do think there's gonna be some sort of wrench or plot twist here, but not sure what it'll be.

There's been a lot of talk about something forming fast and close in ...the E GOM from the feature that's been feasting off of Florida and flooding some areas with excessive amounts of rain. Sometimes it's stronger on the E side and other times the SW side and as much as they are getting rain Charleston and the towns near it keep getting slammed daily with strong storms and typical localized flooding.

So if 97L takes it's time as it rides with the SAL it gets further West and we have to monitor it's every hiccup. But that's down the tropical road.. SAL ends around 55 West and it's a way more favorable place for a system to explode into a strong Hurricane. Further down the line Major is written all over it.

But it has not even hit Cabo Verde yet so let's all breathe. Let's all fill up our hurricane kit, get our supplies not just for Erin or Fernand (which is this one?) but for all the rest that come in Remember September when we are no longer in fake fall and fronts feel more serious and so do hurricanes.

If NHC does something big later today, as they may, I'll update.

Think on what you would need if you evacuate.

Think on what you would need if you stay and hunker down.

Hmnnn what will NHC do ??

Have a good weekend. 97L is about 2 weeks away from the US and a week or so before the Islands. Which Islands you ask? Don't know yet. Which Name will it have? Don't know yet for sure but we are guessing Erin. Have a wonderful day!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X

X mostly weather... elsewhere whatever

Great song.

Some of the lyrics came to me last night.

I smiled...

...so going with it.