Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Friday, July 14, 2023

Subtropical Storm Don Forms in Distant Atlantic. Not Threatening Land. Hot Humid Weather Pattern Stuck ... What Breaks the Pattern You Might Not Like. Who Was and Is Your All Time Favorite Weather Person? The One You Trust??

Don formed at 5 AM this morning.
I was awake.... wasn't exciting.
Obligatory Cone Tweet above.

Models tell the story.
Yes, it is going South a bit isn't it?

Model Ensemble from Weather Nerds.
Scribble Scrabble
Don's Doodles.

Discussion above on Tropical Wave Train....... Good link to disussion on Subtropical Storm Don which is fairly easy to read and explains well why Don is stuck in a messy steering current. 

Enough said today on Don and there's nothing else in the tropics.

What can I really tell you that you don't already know? Up above I left the an image from the Tropical Weather Discussion, it's discussing the three waves that they are tracking, but not expecting to develop any time soon if ever. This is more common than people want to admit in that the tropics are usually on back burner in July while SAL (Saharan Dust) rules the Atlantic robbing tropical waves of any real moisture and shear blows the tops of any developing thunderhead and the tropical waves just continue Westbound. 

1951 Hurricane Season.
An analog year to this one.
Early January system... 
TD in May & July.
Then August BAMN WHAM!!!
It's all about August and September!
Remember that... most years.

So people in Miami are roasting and counting the records made for "feels like" temperature every day and in other cities it's also roasting away. Sometimes it's the actual temperature and other times the "feels like" that makes it feel hotter than the actual temperature. From Miami to Savannah to Raleigh it's incredibly hot. Actually Savannah and Jacksonville were definitely more beastly hot than Miami which at least gets a breeze from the bay. Moving west across the South it's HOT and even past Texas out in Denver it's really hot. This is called Summer, specifically a Summer that acts as if it's on steroids. Mother Nature seems to pumping iron and exercising as if she has something special for us planned down the line. That's really not a good sign....

If you think it's hot in Miami it'll be 99 degrees in Denver on Thursday according to the forecast! It's not a place used to Tropical weather. Then there's Canada, another place you don't expect 100 degree weather temperatures. 

Headline from Washington Post!

Where it's not breaking record temperatures there are wild floods and fires -- Canada just can't get a break. Yesterday they had tornadoes, flooding and record breaking heat. Just showing you here that misery seems to love company and it's a Rocky Road sort of Summer for Canada and parts of the USA and not much we can do about it until the pattern changes. More on that later in this rant... 

People keep asking me why is this happening?  Apparently all they hear on the news is that it's "RECORD BREAKING" and while it is, that and $5 won't buy you a Grande at Starbucks. And, this is my "rant of the day" so thanks for listening.  I just wish more meteorologists would explain the weather more than just report it. 

Every meteorologist I know is tweeting or posting online info on the "RECORD BREAKING HEAT" and yes I get it (really) it's HOT but being honest, it's often hot in the summer and often there is some record to be broken. Yes, a week of "feels like high temperature" is exhausting, but there's little actual explaining of what is causing the stubbonr, horrific heat and why the flow of weather patterns has broken down this week and why we are stuck in this particular sticky hot pattern. Easy to say "it's Summer Virginia what don't you get" or "Global Warming, duh" but no that doesn't really explain the specific story of the week. 

Explain there's a HIGH or a CUT OFF LOW and how the elements are interacting that brought us this heat spell that everyone is kvetching about. People love to rant, I get it, I'm ranting a bit. But I have read barely any discussion explaining WHY this is happening. That's how young kids got hooked on meteorology for years, decades of On Air Meteorologists showing the map, the lines and explaining that as long as "this" is stuck here the weather won't change. And, then they'd point to another weather system somewhere and explain that in several days this will dislodge the pattern and we will return to _____ or start a rainy pattern or go back to a drier pattern. Honestly, not everyone understands a weather graphic or satellite imagery, they are wonderful but showing and explaining are two different things.

Above is Don Weaver... an Iconic Miami Met.
He showed how everything would move.
What might be a problem.
People trusted him!
Weaver the Weatherman!
Link below.......

On air weather people like Don Weaver in Miami and Doctor George in LA held center stage on the evening news, no one really watched the news for the news in LA (unless it was about the movie industry perhaps) they wanted to see what Doctor George would say, maybe he'd make a joke or he'd use blocks and rubber bands explaining how energy builds up and then the Earth releases it with some short, shallow earthquak. Or he'd wax poetic on the "Pineapple Express" and how we were stuck in a pattern with one "comma cloud" after another rolling into the LA Basin. 

Dr. George Fischbeck!
AKA Dr. George on KTLA LA

I learned more about California weather from him.
And, a lot about geology and fault lines in LA.

Not even going to talk on Bryan Norcross.

You can laugh off these people and how they dressed or joked around, but they hooked many of us on meteorology! And, people trusted and relied on them and now days I sadly find very little trust with the pulic when it comes to meteorologists. Then they often go online to people who do study weather such as Dabuh (primarily a surf report ...) and Jim Williams from as he spent years explaining what was going on before Mike from Spaghetti Models took over the Internet with the Morning Brew every morning during hurricane season explaining what was going on in the tropics or how to prepare for Hurricane Irma! The people I mentioned are fantastic, sadly not everyone online is as honest and reliable and many are always just looking for ClickBait with dramatic and sometimes dubious headlines!

Obviously something is missing in the way many present the weather both on air and especially from goverment sources. My thought is often too much time on Twitter is spent saying it's too darn hot (which we know) and not explaining what pattern this week caused the flooding in Montreal or the Twin Tornadoes in Chicago or the Hudson Valley flooding in upstate New York and why it's soooo hot and there's barely any wind moving in Miami compared to some years when the wind won't stop blowing out of the East in July.


Don't just report is my point here. 

And there are awesome weather people I follow Phil Ferro in Miami and Wes Hohenstein in Raleigh as well to name two and honestly that is what sold people on the Weather Channel as they watched carefully listening to everything Jim Cantore said while showing, explaining the Water Vapor Loop or listened to Dave Schwartz joke around but explain with some humor or a song cue what goes up must come down while showing how the air racing down one side of a front would then show the air racing up the other side and bottom line............people learned more, understood more and trusted more.

Rant over.

Rain over, as it poured suddenly for 20 minutes at least, non-stop, heavy, thunder, some wind and then the sun came out bright and being Miami it continued to thunder and pour for another ten minutes with the sunshining. Gotta love Miami... we have AC and ceiling fans move the air around even with the AC and the Cuban Tile Floors keep the house cooler and if you are lucky enough to live by the bay you get an awesome breeze that literally dances west up Flagler Avenue in Downtown Miami. 

Enjoy the heat and the hot days, because honestly the only thing that's really going to change the pattern is a cold front or a hurricane and being that it's Mid July ... most likely it'll be a Hurricane or at least a Tropical Storm that busts the stagnant pattern.

Stay tuned.
It's not over til it's over.

If you are on Twitter you can find lots of information as seen below from @ContentWxGuy who is all about maps, arrows, explanations on current weather patterns vs waxing poetic about a long range model or Ensemble Models that go out so far you can order a Pumpkin Spice Latte .... 

Here in Miami I'm on vacation.
Or have been, taking today to blog some.
Rest and relax before the busy weekend!

I woke up very early this morning.
Waited for sunrise.
I always love the Nautical Sunrise.
Magical colors.
Moon still in the sky.
Clouds climbing.
85 degrees
6 AM.

Then this was sunrise.
Pastel tropical sunrise.

Have a good weekend and find a way to enjoy the weather.... or hide from the weather. Lots of good movies out in the beautifully cool air conditioned theaters. Do whatever you gotta do and know that one thing I can say with weather is if you wait long enough the weather will change. Just saying... you might not like that change either as we get deeper into hurricane season, prime time hurricane season. 

Sweet Tropical Dreams..
@bobbistorm on Twitter, Instagram and Threads

Link to story on Weaver the Weatherman in Miami .... taught generations about weather and hurricanes. I remember him explaining in detail how often when hurricanes come across the mountains in Cuba they "bounce" a bit and need time sometimes to get going in a specific direction... but reminding people how hot the water in Florida Bay was that it would be crossing and it would happen exactly as he explained it would. It wasn't about him, it was about weather and how things work over time in weather history especially regarding hurricanes as that was what Miami kids wanted to know.. 


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