Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, July 06, 2023

CSU Updated July ... New Analog Years for 2023. A Look Back at Social Media.... AOL MySpace Tom... Will Threads Become a Thing? I'm There But Mostly on Twitter. Time Will Tell...

The CSU report for the 2023 Hurricane Season was updated today and everyone is talking about it. They increased the number of storms and ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) based on higher expectations of it being a busier season than previously forecast. To be fair we started off with a storm from back in Winter and 3 weak storms during a brief spurt of activity and are now in our climatologial lull of July "get ready" but not there yet. 

As I specifically enjoy the historical references in Hurricane History I'm a fan of the Analog years that are shown above, now updated are shown below with their tracks and some brief comments of mine. I'll add 1951 in original report as well as chosen by Rob from Crown Weather. 1951, 1969, 2004 and 2006 were in the original CSU report, 2005 has been added in as an analog year. The year 1957 was dropped by CSU. 

1951 Hurricane Season.
Fish storms created a lot of ACE.
Some strange tracks.

1969 Hurricane Season.
Camille helped the ACE.
Lots of weak trackers.
Busy despite El Nino.
But u can see El Nino's impact.

1987 Hurricane Seasaon.
Weak, El Nino Year.
Floyd went SW to NE thru SFL.
Traffic lights swayed some......

2004 Hurricane Season.
El Nino but warm water in MDR
Similar to this year.
Jeanne and Ivan stars of the show.
(lotta fish storms with ACE)
Ps was a Modoki El Nino so not same as this year.

2005 Hurricane Season.
Mother Nature played scribble scrabble with tracks.
Coming off El Nino into Neutral.
Katrina, Rita and Wilma stars.
Note Katrina like Camille in 1969 impacted same area.
Tho Katrina did Miami before doing Nola.
Katrina was an over achiever!!
Busy year........

2006 Hurricane Season.
El Nino came back!
Florida & GOM needed a break!
ACE out in the Atlantic. 
A lot of SAL. 

In the tropics today...

Satellite imagery shows blob in GOM.
Another Caribbean Wave near the Yucatan.

There are 3 contenders.
The new African Wave (beautiful wave)
Area mentioned above in SW Carib.
Off the Carolinas a possible spin up... ish.
Low chances but only places highlighted here.

African Wave coming off with color...
...facing the SAL monster in hold currently.

Worth noting SAL not that bad currently....
....shear been the problem.
But a new impulse is coming off soon with the wave.
That's July Wave and SAL run together.

Note if any wave makes it thru the SAL.
And tries to lift up a bit ...
...currently the Twin ULL are playing defense.
They do that this time of year... 
Upper Level Lows
July is slow. 
When you add them all up!

Lastly there has been soooo much talk about El Nino and constant bickering by teams of mets that feel it will be a big factor and mets who feel it's mitigated by water temperature and not such strong SAL and well the proof will be in the pudding.... that's the bottom line. It is true that the SAL hasn't been as bad as some years and El Nino is not yet auditioning for the Christmas Pagent though I do think it's have a larger impact a time goes by, we can already see it's impact. 

What bugs me more is how slow it is aross a wider part of the Tropical basin. And, to be honest the current set of waves are far apart and few and far between. Earlier in the season we had a more robust wave train.

Noticeable but stretched like taffy across the Atlantic!

Not much going on besides that one wave over Africa.

While expecting development in July is unealistic.
We usually see a more moist environment.

Even the very unreliable long range ensembles are Meh.
Some models try and develop an African wave.
Should be quiet for the next week indeed.

Only thing to remember is that in times such as these.
Pop up storms can develop close in...
..from old frontal boundaries or 
ULLs that gulped too much moisture inside.

July is all about Get Ready because the way 2023 is going it'll be August in the blink of an eye!

Stay tuned...stay cool...stay well and never stop watching those tropical waves !!

Sweet Tropical Dreams
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram... as well as added on Threads.
Twitter mostly weather, Instagram weather and whatever.
So far not super impressed with Threads but like the Hurricane Season time will tell.

You can also follow me here as I made it awhile back but have barely used it but will start linking the blog and thoughts for what it's worth. I'm very into Twitter so I post there mostly though I am on other sites as well... especially as my kids are Instagram people... 

I miss AOL... everything in one place on one message board. If you loved weather, especially tropical weather, you were on that board. One easy part of Twitter is that because it's limited in characters (which many people hate) it makes it easy to scroll through fast to find what you are looking for... on Threads today I saw several people post what looked like a Longread Blog and I thought "you gotta be kidding" with new appreciation for the character limits many have. I can use more as I paid the $8 and cut back one Starbucks a month (how I judge the value of a product) but rarely do I as I want anyone to be able to read it that wants to...   

In general Twitter made me a better Editor as I've learned to delete words that modify without much content and that's good as y'all know I write long here on the blog. I've worked as an Editor and Freelance Writer making good money, but trust me I am a way better editor now. That could be edited down to "I've worked as an Editor and Freelance Writer and I am a better Editor now after using Twitter." 

Whatever floats your boat.... enjoy Social Media... you can always use on Hurricane City Website if you like Message Boards or Storm2K where I sometimes lurk.

Honestly I prayed soooo hard ...
... weak connections you never knew if it'd make it 
All my friends were there.....on the Message Board.

And who doesn't miss Tom??
Loved MySpace too... 
....never been a huge fan of Facebook.
Though I use it...
Tom was like a Teddy Bear.. 
...everyone's first friend!!

some changes are good... 
much love!

PS Sorry for any typos I have a really bad headache today.



At 10:47 AM, Blogger Florida_Vaper said...

In terms of tropical cyclones, the years 2004 and 2005 mentioned as analogs makes me cringe. It wasn't until 2004 that I started to take the tropics seriously and I have been living in Florida since before Hurricane David. Really love your work, Bobbi!


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