Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, April 19, 2023

Message to Remember! Weaker than Average Seasons Due to El Nino ...Can Deliver Major Hurricanes to Remember. Quiet Tropics Still...Good Time for Hurricane Prep! Cold Fronts Still Coming....


Strong front to the North.
Departing Front.
Tail has some strong moisture near Cuba.

Salient Point for the Day from Tweet below!
Worth remembering........

This is a message that cannot be shared enough, cannot be stressed enough! Especially at a time that news outlets looking for Clickbait that will gain traction, it is worth remembering when you see multiple stories on how El Nino is forming and it is due to be a quieter hurricane season.  While that may or may not be true as the arrival of El Nino is filled with more questions than answers and what we do know from El Nino seasons is that storms have problems spinning due to shear (in certain areas) and so many tropical disturbances do not make it and therefore there is a slightly lower total of storms. BUT sometimes fairly frequently they will put it together closer in to land. 

Weak, fumbling around by the Yucatan.
Mets arguing if it would survive.
Some said it could thrive.
Close to land Michael exploded.
Those of us online late at night remember.
It was wild, a wildly horrific tragedy.
Late in the season.... 

Andrew in August... late A storm.
Weak early season.
From Blue to Orange/Red FAST.
Never looked back .... 
Florida - Louisiana Double Hitter.

As Toren Hynes points out... 
Hurricane Harvey developed close to land.
A long, exhausting track across Caribbean.
Caribbean a bit closed to development.
But close in to Texas... it was easy to develop!
Toren is good to follow, by the way!

It's just a message that cannot be ignored and needs to be remembered. Yes, a strong El Nino can shut down the Caribbean as shear develops ....think of it as an outflow from El Nino.... it happens often but if a tropical disturbance can hold it together until it gets past the shear it can slam into Texas or the Florida Panhandle or anywhere in that area where the GOM water temperatures are HOT HOT HOT and shear down in the Caribbean doesn't tear it apart or stop if from going Major Hurricane.

Lesser than Average Hurricane Seasons are often the years with the worst Major Hurricane that no one can ever forget, so remember that NOW! Not when you tried to find hurricane supplies after everything was already grabbed and gas is running low because everyone has already been filling up their gas tank!

A good place to stop:

If you'd like to do some Hurricane Reading a good place to start is the link below from Jim Wililams who updated the 2022 data base... a long, tedious job that provides us with tons of data!

Euro from

I did say I'd mention models so here is a model showing something there in the Atlantic trying to form or at least to remind you Hurricane Season is 43 days away .... and then a diving cold front reminds you that Mother Nature is not done with Wintry weather yet so don't put those cute boots away and hold onto the hoodie which you need in South Florida always because everyone keeps the AC down cold enough for it to feel like a brisk Autumn Day. If  you know you know........and I know.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,


@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Twitter mostly weather and Instagram is weather and whatever :)


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