Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, October 23, 2022

Tropics Still Open for Business ... Invest 94L Out There. GFS... Always Shows Something on the 10th Day ... Have a Good Day. Is the Cone Dead AFTER IAN? We Need a Better Way of Showing the DANGERS Not Just Track of the EYE What Do You Think?


This yellow X sits out in the Atlantic.
Basically says:
"Huricane Season isn't over yet....
...but nothing really happening today!"

Those are the  models for 94L.
Nuff said.

The weather here is spectacular and getting ready to go out to more places than I can fit in one day as everyone seemed to want to make a program somewhere today and just why? It's the last day of the State Fair if I was making a program I sure as hell would have waited until early November. Get the Fair over, get past Halloween and do it then. Will see..... but the sun is out and it's cool but not cold, warm but not hot and I'm having problems trying to say anything tropical here. 

Waves moving westbound... 
and a Low sits anchored in the SW Carib.
A stalled out front is across Cuba.

Not showing the coastal low off of East Coast.
It's irrelevant as NHC just calls it a Coastal Low.
Agree on that.

Everyone insists the tropics are not dead and something will develop in the Caribbean. Maybe. Could be, it's been an active place of late and yet nothing is happening for now. If you are really desperate to see a glimmer of hope of something with a center and swirly looking you can always go to long range GFS and on the last day there is of course something in the Caribbean down near South America. You really have to give the GFS a B- for at least trying hard.

So there's the very long range GFS

2 views of the same area.
I don't have to tell you the EURO sees nothing.

And, lastly rain from Roslyn...
...will move across Mexico into Texas.

This rides up and joins up with a front.

The Low at the base of the weather... the remnants of Rosalyn.
That becomes a weather maker in the USA

And that's the way it goes. Weather moves about the Earth encouraging rain ...  2022 has been a year where weather from the EPAC crossed into the BOC then crossed back again and well it's been an odd year. We definitely could have done without Ian, but it was overdo and my own hope is that people will finally understand the dangers of Storm Surge.

In fact next time you have a major hurricane moving towards a populated spit of land that juts out West to East in the Gulf of Mexico no one talk incessantly on Tampa getting a hurricane and/or spend less time talking about Global Warming (wait until AFTER it makes landfall) and don't spend time telling survivors of Charley not to worry it could turn in further South and spend less time explaining THE CONE and just show nonstop videos of Storm Surge... from Ian...from Michael on a loop over and over as well as what Fort Myers Beach and Sanibel looked like AFTER IAN. 

In 1992 Miami had not been hit in years directly from a real hurricane, yet 3 years earlier Hurricane Hugo had slammed into Charleston area and destroyed their barrier islands. The images from HUGO were in everyone's minds and those who took precautions only did so because they pictured the damage from HUGO imposed on Miami and Miami Beach. 

Bryan Norcross who everyone loves and respects and isn't afraid to say what he thinks has weighed in on THE CONE.  You can read the article on his site on Facebook. It's a long read I warn you ;) as he has much to say and I agree on many levels. It's not easy and I'm not sure what the best way to present the matter is but more info and less cartoon like graphics would seem better as THE CONE is not properly presenting the story. Perhaps show a different graphic with words and images showing STORM SURGE DANGER vs EYE IMPACTS or in cases where displaced weather is far from the center... put up a graphic that explains "yes you live in Orlando but you're going to get wild weather displaced by shear" from a storm making landfall somewhere other than Orlando. If there's a danger for tornadoes ... put a tornado symbol up over that area. Basically an upgraded version of an old fashioned weather map that was more clear than a shaded area known as "THE CONE" ..... there has to be a better way.

Giving up on warning the public properly is not an option!

That's it. Have a great day. Enjoy the weather and whatever you love. Inflation is through the roof and I can't imagine what an impact that is making for people trying to rebuild from Ian to have that added problem. But some things in life are still free and the view of the sky, the sea, the hills and or watching birds or trees is still an option for now so if nothing else get out today and enjoy it. If you are in the part of the country that is getting snow... I'm so jelly... 

Mike's got Winter Weather Maps up!

Sweet Tropical Dreams or dream of snow... whatever floats your boat!
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram


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