Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, October 24, 2022

Update 3 PM - 70% Red #94L Near Bermuda. GFS Still Sees Strong Storm in Carib - EURO Nada. Stay Tuned!!

Oh they used the "regardless" word. Hmnn.
Likely become a TD later today.
Very close to Bermuda.
Maybe some watches posted?
See what the NHC does later today.

Earthnull shows 94L
Bermuda visible there.
Little white dot... 

Forecast for Bermuda...

Get ready for inclement weather!!


As for the possible Carib Storm/Hurricane...
Whatever may form.

Super Long Range.
GFS thinks it's Superman with Xray vision.
Future xray vision.

Consistency can't be ignored.
But lots of time to think on it later.
It's still hurricane season..........

Stay Tuned!!

* * * 

 Monday morning........

This is a good example of why a thousand words is worth way more than just looking at one image. On the surface, if you woke up late after an evening out at the State Fair you may have blinked your eyes thinking you were seeing something or dreaming. If you thought Hurricane Season was over ...your heart may be beating fast especially if you live along the East Coast and you saw this image randomly on Facebook from your crazy Uncle Bob who worries on weather all the time because he got way too much weather from Hurricane Bob. Long story just saying....

No.... it's not that scary, but it does grab everyone's attention.

The orange circle is at 40% odds from the system that was 10-20% yellow for the last several days as it zoomed across the Atlantic WNW.  The new yellow system is NOT the old coastal low that's further to the North cruising along the coast like it's a pontoon party boat. Its an area that could form at the bottom of a front and that's about as classic as it gets. 

The orange system is forecast to be caught by a front and pulled out to sea.
A high builds in.
The high traps the subtropical system that could form from the new yellow circle and swirls in circles.
What's not on the map yet may be the big game changer for the tropics coming back to life and that's the system that may or may not form in the Caribbean from a westbound wave that's been running in stealth mode Westbound while everyone stares confounded at the yellow circle in the North Atlantic.

First off this is the 1st image in a loop.
It's Rosalyn. It was Rosayln*
Now it's merged with the fronal boundary u can see below.
The image below is the last image in the loop.
Link to loop at the end of the blog..

To the left is the frontal bounday that the remnants of Rosalyn fused into and it's moving East as these fronts always do. While it moves East it amps up the Severe Weather for people in it's path. In the middle of the image above is the old cold front that went down through Florida down near Cuba, these are always problematic this time of year as it's common for systems to try to form at their tail. What happens is a piece of energy detaches a bit and hangs down over warm tropical water. The new yellow circle is where a low could form and currently they believe it will be subtropical more than tropical but it could still get a name if it pulls together. To the right the third area of convection is Invest 94L our old fast moving yellow submarine system we have watched cross the Atlantic for the last several days. 

Always remember that the atmosphere is fluid and as you introduce new elements into it, what was supposed to happen can change a lot or a little. Invest 94L is now forecast to come closer to the coasline in the NE and the Canadian Maritimes depending on which model you prefer. We will discuss this later this afternoon after the next set of model runs, expect an update of the blog then. 

The orange area that is forecast by the NHC to become a subtropical system is not yet designated as an Invest. 

Canadian up above.
GFS down below.

GFS showns a formidable system.
They both show our orange circle trapped off coast.
Well until the next front comes along.

Note the tropical wave nearing the Islands.
Note the moisture over Venezuela.
To the North of that moisture arrives the tropical wave.
This is when we could get a truly tropical system.
Could... maybe... possible.
Not locked in but GFS is not stepping down.
And a few other models are jumping on board.
I imagine if the EURO blinks a yellow circle goes up

As seen in the two models shown above, down in the Tropical Atlantic there is a tropical wave moving W towards the Caribbean. The CMC and the GFS both show this developing at the same time that the orange circle to it's North and East of Florida develops as if someone flipped a tropical switch to turn the 2022 Hurricane Season back on. To be fair in the Carolinas this week have an Indian Summer happening as the high temperatures are flirting with 80 degrees and the lows are more moderate in the 50s and 60s after diving last week into the 30s at 7AM. On the other side of this warm up there will be a cold font cooling us back down again.

The atmosphere is always in flow, and that's good it's why we are able to live in Planet Earth and again tropical systems try to move North towards the North Pole in the Atlantic to help push (circulate) warm air near the equator up and that happens pretty much until there is no warm air to push. They also bring rain, much needed rain.

It's worth thinking about the fact that the Mississippi is having to be dredged so ships can navigate the mutiple curves our amazing river that flows through the heartland of America. Note there has been a lack of tropical systems making landfall near Louisiana or Mississippi or even Houston this year and those unnamed tropical waves, tropical depressions, tropical storms and even strong hurricanes routinely deliver much needed moisture towards our Bread Basket that grows a whole lot more than just bread. No moisture means no rain and that means prices go up and some crops deliver way less than we need. The water level also in the Mississippi goes down and in 2022 that's a larger problem than most people are aware of...

The down side of a relatively quiet Hurricane Season during the time of season that tends to normally dum lots of rain across the Mississippi River and it's various tributaries 

I'll update later today after next model runs.

There's a video I put up on YouTube to share on Twitter which is basically my "thinking out loud" and hopefully that clears up the confusion on why someone started drawing colorful circles again on the NHC main page.

Speaking of the NHC the acting director laid out some thoughts on "THE CONE" and it's worth reading.
Remember the NHC is all over the Internet on many social media venues and they are always open to hearing your thoughts on the Cone. Do you like it? Do you hate it?' Do you like it but it needs tweaking? Let them know... they are always working hard to try and create the best possible products for the public to use. And, sadly no matter how much they say to pay attention to the NWS (and I do but others do not) the MEDIA ignores the NWS and they do not routinely put the local director of the NWS on to explain the possible severe weather or weather connected to a nearby hurricane but they always put on someone from the NHC. As I have said before the NHC is "sexy" and the NWS is not and people know they are there but give them about as much attention as their 9th grade Biology Teacher. Sad, but true. 

* Some mets insist that Rosalyn formed from energy that crossed over Central America into the EPAC. The truth is energy often goes back and forth and then at some point finds new life opportunities in a front in the SW part of the US or Texas. This is part of the nature of the atmosphere always being in flow, moving, oozing and rearranging itself from one type of system into that DNA getting involved in another system. The same way energy at the tail end of a front can spin up into a subtropical or tropical system in the Atlantic down the road.

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Twitter mostly weather and Instagram whatever...

Oh you probably want a song.


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