Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, May 15, 2022

NHC Hurricane Season Graphics Up.... Tropical Weather Outlook Graphics. Models Don't Always Agree... Models Change in Real Time & Make U Turns! La Nina Hurricane Season! GOM Tropical Cyclone? Depends on the Long Range Model...


This is the official bottom line!
Nothing doing for 2 days in the tropics!
NHC = Bottom Line!

Obviously there is much discussion concerning the GFS insistence that there will be a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico cruising up towards SW Florida (on this run) and the refusal by the EURO to even see the formation of a tropical cyclone in that time period in our basin.  The reason we use modelS is because it's not a sure thing by any one model, each sees things a bit differently and often they agree to disagree until they agree.

GFS on the left all go for lift off.
EURO on the right sees nada, nothing.

Before buying into long range models, remember that all the long range climo models were insistent that we were headed into NEUTRAL model and therefore it might be a busy season, but a quieter one. Then, something changed..............and we are now fairly sure we are headed U turn style into a La Nina and it could even be a fairly strong La Nina. What happened? Between long range models and today, several factors appeared and dug in that made the current not mirror the long range models. Suddenly the heat is on and everyone is concerned again about a stronger, busier hurricane season with landfalling impacts along the coasts. 

This is not a story of "HYPE" but a story of what is today as opposed to what the models showed may happen months ago. It is what it is... would be the story here.

Maybe the GFS is right. Maybe it's wrong. We will find out in real time. As good as models get, they are still most reliable in the 5 to 7 day range and always more in agreement in the 3 day period. 

So use this mixed message as a primer for what will come down the road, because one thing I CAN promise you is the models will continue to disagree during the 2022 Hurricane Season. Take them with lots of sea salt and continue preparing your Hurricane Plans should a hurricane decide to come and visit you this season.

Tip of the day: Make sure your chain saws work, if you don't have one you might want to find out which neighbor near you has one... 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

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