Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, July 22, 2021

Decaying Fronts Produce Close In Home Grown Development ... Atlantic a Long Shot but Not Impossible ... Watch for a Small System Models Might Not Pick UP ... but for now.. It's Quiet in the MDR

I was at a wedding last night in Aventura for a family that is like my family as I've know the Mother of the Bride since she was about 9 years old. There was a beautiful ceremony outside "feels like 103 degrees" then a good amount of Scotch and Coke and dancing nonstop and finally I checked the NHC site that had an X over Georgia and wondered if I was seeing things. I'm  still obviously not used to their yellow circles way inland but getting used to it. As I said the other day when the Atlantic is slow and unfriendly and fronts are sticking around you look for close in development that pop up suddenly as tropical possibilities.

There are possibilities close in....

It's not that there is a lack of tropical waves coming off of Africa, but they are suppressed still to the South by a very strong Saharan Dust outbreak that has taken up residence in the MDR and shows no signs of letting go. A wave could develop but the models are not picking up on it and none look as healthy as Elsa that came off of Africa spinning.  Sometimes a small vortex develops and the models have problems latching onto it in it's early phases so while I'm not expecting development in the next week to ten days there I would not rule it out simply because models do not see it. Models sometimes notice after something begins to spin. That said..............the real deal is the old frontal boundary draped across  the Southeast and strung out into the Atlantic showing up dark orange and red from Georgia to near Bermuda trailing off energy all the way towards England. 

Models do show some development off the coast in several days but some models actually show two areas of possibilities as shown by the two purple splotches above.  The Northernmost purple area wiggles up along the coast from Myrtle Beach towards OBX and some models hold onto it as an entity as it traces the coast. Oddly, other models show a piece of energy gets caught more to the South drifts across Florida and languishes in the Gulf of Mexico as convection and lower pressures but doesn't scream Tropical Storm. 

The fact that this possibility is there is interesting as nothing says "homegrown tropical development" more than a front draped across the Southeast. It's our prime producer of tropical named systems of weak intensity that bump us up the alphabet as we move towards IDA and it's possibly FRED will be a flash in the pan as a storm that does nothing more than what other storms have done in 2021 and that is with an East Coast bias they drift up along the coast then race away.

The other possibility is nothing develops and we keep watching and I keep enjoying my Miami vacation. I really need to get to Miami Beach at some point but as I lay here in my daughter's bed staring out at the window at the skyline of Miami and it's hot outside and I think "maybe tomorrow" which is why Miami runs often on Manana time. After a wild wedding last night with mucho dancing and drinking and many selfies doing it manana works just fine for me.

The tropics are on Manana time nothing compelling or interesting. As a Miami girl I am weary of time when the Atlantic goes red hot later in August vs late in July as September makes you remember Major Hurricanes that trace a strong high and slam into Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida before they are able to put the brakes on.

Something to think on.

Later... Manana.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.

Not on my main computer and the back up I travel with is difficult but hopefully you get the song.


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