Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, June 27, 2021

10 PM Updated. 50/50 Chances for 96L Close In Tropical Trouble at 50% 95L Atlantic Wave 30% Do They Develop? Which One Gets a Name? Short Term Watch the one Close In... But Keep Watching the Huge Wave. History on Miami Beach, Why History and Geography Matter But Is Often Ignored. Champlain Towers.

 Late night thoughts.

8 PM 50/50 chances for development.

Many computer models do not handle small systems well and they especially do not handle small systems caught up in Upper Level Lows and this Invest has been dancing with Upper Level Lows from the beginning. It looks good, it doesn't look as good, it looks better again. It has uneven development and yet a chance at getting designation. The NHC will decide Monday morning what they want to do as it's moving fast towards a visit with the coast. Nothing huge should develop, but when you have low country and  marsh in many places you can have flooding. Charleston, specifically, floods from a hard fast rain and there is beautiful low country in it's path and depending on the timing, tides it can make a small impact.  Further off is our Atlantic wave that models like and again it's a big wave with a large pocket that also looks better and then not as good and then better again. A stubborn wave is a thing of beauty and can be a trouble maker down the road.

Currently 96L is an overachiever.
My goodness that's Savannah or bust!
Tybee Island or Georgetown SC?

Again u see a pattern here?

95L has been an underachiever but it's forecast to last.

The rest is discussion on the set up.

And some facts on Miami Beach History.

And how that may relate to Champlain Towers.

I'll update in the morning and see what NHC does re 96L

As for 95 L at some point recon will go in ...

Sweet Tropical Dreams... BobbiStorm

* * * 

Update 2 PM

Invest 96L has higher chances of forming now.

I wouldn't ignore the GOM either. Heating up.

96L seems to be an overachiever.
The actual "center" is the C shaped yellow
to the West of the stronger convection.
It's trying to come together.

So Danny may form off the coast of the USA
Close in ...if so the wave could be Elsa.
Time will tell.

I'll update later.
Below is still valid info.
And some history of a tropical paradise below.

Thanks for your patience.
Hasn't been an easy few days for me.

Connect the yellow circles.
See a pattern.
Tracing the edge of the High Pressure.
Below you can see both systems being monitored.

We have two areas being monitored for development.
Close to the SE coast is a small mini swirl... 
...far out in the Atlantic there is a huge wave.
Big and small but both moving West.

The bottom line Sunday morning is that there is a huge High propelling everything West currently and at some point land is in the way of any potential system with this set up.  

The small area off the SE coast spiraling as it moves West within a pocket moving in tandem with an Upper Level Low (actually 2 but the ULL to the North is larger and more the driver here of what may or may not happen) and some models do show that it could wrap up close to land. It's common for this sort of Low to develop and wrap up tighter as it gets closer to land. I should say closer to landfall IF it comes to that. It's a tricky set up but it often produces a "surprise" homegrown storm forming literally at the beach. But in today's world nothing is really a total surprise as models offer possible solutions and forecasters pick through those models looking for the most reliable information to help guide people in it's path. Late June early July is prime time for these coastal Lows getting a name, but usually they are short lived so not much fame. Just a rainy day at the beach. 

Note the small low trying to close off... 
The big high propelling it towards land.
Impressive signature the high has... don't u think?

In the long term the wave out in the Atlantic is a problem for islands in it's way, unless the High inhales substantially and allows the wave to miss the islands. What could it become? It could become a tropical storm at the least, IF it develops. The issue with Invest 95L is the opposite of the small coastal low off the coast. Compare and contrast the two above and the large one has a huge moisture pocket. I use the word "huge" because it is HUGE... big, comprehensive and often large systems like this present a threat as they do not die off as do weak, small waves that dry up fast.  The large high is kind of like a personal humidifier that is carried with it and as long as there is moisture there is the chance of development. Oddly, it has quite the closed signature on Earthnull, however the NHC can and will tell you that does not make it anything more than an Invest.  But the broad circulation staying together and staying moist makes it hard to ignore this wave. 

One thing that needs to be remembered is that far out in the Atlantic is that the water temperatures currently are not warm enough to really produce a hurricane so they stay a tropical wave rolling west and yet when they get into the part of the Atlantic that is warmer they face shear coming out of the Caribbean this time of year. This is why June is usually too soon. It's a push me, pull me sort of set up that makes it hard for waves to develop, yet the bigger they are the more chance they have (especially when they have their own semi closed broad center, yet many such waves have produced tropical trouble as they got closer to the Islands and the US and the associated Bahamas. So know it's there and keep preparing for hurricane season.

The below part of the blog is some history ...
..history of Miami Beach.
If you aren't interested ...thanks for reading the above.
I'll update on the wave in the morning.
In Miami while watching coverage of the building collapse..
...they are watching that wave carefully.
I am too as I type the blog...
..  again the below is an ecological history of Miami.
It relates, tho how much it relates exactly is yet to be known.

Could a named system hit Jacksonville Florida?
It's not developed and it's increasing moisture in SFL.
Maybe Savannah or Myrtle Beach?
I'll update tomorrow.

A wide view of "Miami Beach" below.
It's Miami's beach.... was a sandbar and nothing more.
Dredged up ocean sand and redesigned.

This is a close up of the part of the world we call "Miami Beach" that stretches from Government Cut that was literally "cut" off from what is now Fisher Island but was once part of Miami Beach. They made the "cut" to make a channel into downtown Miami, as before that ships had to go far to the South near Virginia Key and work their way back towards the young city of Miami. Government Cut was a short cut and one that helped make Miami a major Port city. Surfside is beautiful, small municipality just before "Miami Beach" runs into Bal Harbor.  Note how the  Western side of the coastline has cuts into land and places where Collins Avenue is very narrow. There is one such area where Champlain Towers is and there's another one further south near what used to be the Deauville Hotel of Beatles fame and both those areas are more prone to flooding than other areas, flooding in that over time every large hurricane had storm surge where briefly the bay and the ocean met.  

The original beach looked more like this...
...just a sandbar, a thin sandbar
Waterfront property sells.... they made more waterfront property!

So you have heard about the study in the 1980s saying that said that area in particular was more prone to buildings losing height (by extremely small measures but everything adds up) and it's attributed to that specific area being a natural, wetland habitat.  It said that not all of Miami Beach was "sinking" but that specific block or two was sinking more. Could the sand there be "weaker" than a few blocks North or South?  Possibly, but it doesn't account for a tragedy on this scope, not really. It's easy to blame things on one study or one other study, but studies have been done over time and buildings inspected and monitored. Most of Miami Beach was a natural wetland area as it was part of a SANDBAR that's coastline shifted, shrunk and grew over time as sand was washed away or it was deposited there. The western part of the sandbar known as Miami Beach because it was Miami's beach literally accessible only by rowboat or sail boat for the locals who went over on Sunday and made picnics. There was a ridge along the ocean side where some trees grew, vs the tangle of mangroves in the middle and the on the western edge.

Then in the 1920s they tore out the mangroves so hard to do they brought in elephants who were tougher than the machines and then they leveled it and then they put down sod, beach sand, filled in the holes and made subdivisions to be sold off to the highest bidder. With time they made waterfront property where only the bay had existed so when you see long islands or peninsular like areas with condos on each side with beautiful water front views including those beautiful round islands with awesome mansions know they were NOT there... Miami Beach was a long strip of land, very much a sandbar and very much alive and always growing or losing land with the flow of every hurricane and every Noreaster in the winter that digs away at Miami Beach amazingly more than hurricanes.

This was not the huge, glitzy Porsche Tower 60 stories high built also on a spit of land that was once a natural wetland; granted it was built recently after stronger building codes post Hurricane Andrew.  Every building HAS TO BE CONSTANTLY MAINTAINED because the beautiful ocean that sold the condos with the beautiful views ... eat away at it day by day, salty air becomes corrosive... that's the bottom line.

And the problem with a condo is each unit is privately owned and maintained differently yet all are in the same village so to speak, this is always an issue during Hurricane Season in smaller buildings as the structure is only as strong as it's weakest link. Out of town owners who didn't secure their sliding glass door nor did they maintain it.  My son had a "penthouse" in Sunny Isles and the sliding glass door literally did NOT lock, but as long as there was no hurricane, it wasn't a problem. It used to boggle my mind, but the view also boggled my mind. a penthouse in Champlain Towers is different from a smaller, less well
maintained unit that may have more cracks on the balconies because heavy tile was added or it was not as well maintained. One unit had a sliding glass door that allowed in rain, others did not. And that is the same with EVERY condo in that area on either side of Miami Beach. So while you may have incredible protection for a hurricane.... your neighbor above you may not and not even locked the door on their sliding glass door when they went to see the kids in Canada or Panama. 

Yes things sink in Miami, it's build on a swamp on a thin layer of limestone that is prone to sinkholes, cracks and sometimes underground "streams" not originally seen until there is a problem. My college was sinking (6 inches in less than 10 years) they had to reinforce it, it was blamed on blasting nearby by constructors building ...creating a new subdivision. The building would literally sway and shake when they would blast while we were in class but South Dade was all the rage then. A joke in Miami said if you stood too long on South Dixie Highway or Kendall Drive they'd build a condo on top of you.  My synagogue was designed to be a beautiful, modern oval structure and after it was built the roof had problems and parts suck into the ground and it looked like a "squashed bug" being known as one of the oddest structures in the area. It turns out there was a stream ... part of a canal that some developer in the 1920s began building but stopped and it was a subterranean waterway NOT on any maps. 

The roof was supposed to be "SMOOTH" like an igloo ...
(why don't know someone liked this design)
The ridges are because it was sinking... didn't fall but it didn't end up the way it was supposed to.
It was a synagogue, now it's a church.
Built in the early 1970s...still there.
Note the map below shows canals nearby.
Apparently part of one was under that building.
My highs school nearby was also sinking.
They reinforced it.

The canal to the West of the Temple was still there..
..underground, not on maps and not noticed.
Until "ribs" began to appear on the roof.
Living in a swamp paved over isn't easy ... 
...always something can crop up.
And needs maintenance.

Also a Condo Association has to agree on things...
..and Covid slowed down the process or repairs.
After the 2018 report shown below.

Really nothing to add weather wise but I did want to point out something that impacts much of the South Florida area and that's the history of the land and how we interact with this beautiful tropical paradise, well unless a tropical system is about to make landfall. 

Thanks for reading this, it's not great literature but it's my therapy as writing helps and I am a Miami Historian who has lectured extensively over time.  Thanks for your patience as I work my way through this while waiting to hear news on my friend is seems lost... in the debris. One of my best friends says I "write" that's what I do and how I communicate and he's correct as usual. It's my therapy but it's good to understand the history of Miami Beach. 

Excellent historical account of how Miami Beach was cut up to make a route to the young city of Miami, and how Government Cut and the Port of Miami, how it began.

And a wonderful video from one of my most loved friends, Paul George the Ultimate Miami Historian.

Early Miami Bathing Beauties...  Incredible video...  it was a beach where the locals took rowboats or sailboats over and had picnics. The city was Miami, Miami Beach was a sandbar to enjoy the beach as Miami in general had no beach it is built on a bay... any semblance of beach is man made, much like most of Miami Beach is... 

Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram



At 10:28 AM, Blogger OssQss said...

Hopefully closure can be found soon for all those impacted by this horrible disaster.

Thank you for the interesting history lesson on the area. I recall reading about subsidence being enhanced from increased water extraction down there from the associated growing demand.


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