Invest 92L in the BOC. Watching the HIGH Pressure in the Atlantic. Tropical Possibilities Later This Week in the GOM are ... Possible.

Invest 92L

Using a collage of images from Spaghetti Models.

www.spaghettimodels.com

The first shows "intensity index"

Basically in the red areas intensity is more possible.

Low down in the BOC it's HOT

Up near the coastline of the upper GOM it's warm.

The Gulf of Mexico is not currently primed for action.

We may get action but dawdling development.

And erratic motion may be a problem.

Models spit out various solutions.

As always wait until it forms for reliable models!!

The next image with the purple splotches is relevant.

There's an area in the Atlantic being ignored.

Off the coast of the Carolinas.

A wave that has it's brief moment in the sun...

Later in the week we could see action.

There's are Tropical Atlantic Saturday Night.

https://zoom.earth/

Use it don't lose it.

It's an awesome site.

The next image below is the current synoptics.

The land of the land and the sea.

Weather patterns currently impacting forecasting!

What is important here is the HIGH PRESSURE.

It is taking up the entire Atlantic.

Wave progress Westward.

But the HIGH is anchored in spot.

This has been bugging me.

The area in question in the BOC now known as 92L is still at 40% orange circle chances of development down the road and more likely down the road means not tomorrow. It's got competition from the system on the EPAC side and until something definitive forms that convective energy will flow back and forth, ramp up and fall apart and then look as if it is blossoming again into something. Basically it's a work in progress. So rather than obsess on it's chances I'm going to backtrack a bit tonight and talk about some old posts I did years back that may or may not relate to 2021. 

Oddly today I came across a file that I had obviously hid that contained print outs of much of my blog from 2005 with some interesting tidbits from 2004. When I don't want to deal with something I throw it in the back of the closet and at some point I clean the closet or move and find what I was trying to ignore. 2004 and 2005 were very interesting fun years for me when everything was stressful yet I seemed to have found ample opportunities to have fun, run away to Key West and deal with friends online and offline. So my blog posts back then were less about weather and more about what was going on in my life, an online diary of sorts or at least until hurricanes ramped up and it became all about tropical weather. In the offseason I was prone to writing strange blogs about going to buy a bra at Victoria's Secrets or old boyfriends that ended up being shown all over the web. You live, you learn. 

I'm writing this late on a Saturday night watching my local weather person in NC try to show some sort of interest in a blob in the Gulf of Mexico while explaining if you want to see sunrise in Raleigh tomorrow you may need to wake up way before 6 AM. We are almost at that infamous time of the year when we hit the Longest Day of the Year written into infamy by F. Scott Fitzgerald in The Great Gatsby and the Summer Solstice. After the Summer Solstice the Hurricane Season has more oomph than it does in June so beware as in 2021 July may not be too early to see Atlantic, MDR sort of development.

I worked at a library back when that had great access to wonderful printers that I never had to pay for nor worry on buying new paper or ink so apparently I took good advantage of that job benefit. While the pay was not great the benefits were awesome and I got paid to help people and do research things when it was slow so how incredible was that? Also they were very understanding about my being a young, single mother with lots of kids who either got in trouble or had asthma attacks in class. Hours lost were easily made up and I had access to great computers that allowed me to monitor satellite imagery all day during the Hurricane Season.

http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/2005/02/la-rain-linked-to-2005-hurricane.html

In the blog written back then BEFORE the actual 2005 Hurricane Season I referenced an article written by Robert P. King from the Palm Beach Post ... a newspaper that was a tropical meteorologists delight as they had a message board on the tropics and covered the tropics in a way far better than most local newspapers did meaning before something forms not after it forms when it's threatening you! I actually went to a library conference there once where we were allowed to take a walk through it's incredible archive. The link to the blog has the whole article in it and it's worth reading or sharing with anyone interested in this topic.

The high that year was a mean, bad monster and  a dangerous set up began to appear that showed a possible busy season after the already busy year of 2004 when Hurricanes crisscrossed Florida to epic comedic proportions. The huge high was making the locals go nuts as there is a saying that dry Mays and huge highs come together to bring landfalling hurricanes. AGAIN I'll say this ...that article is a must read for anyone interested in tropical meteorology as it writes about patterns of the High over time going back before 1850 to a time when we do not have records to study but meteorologists studied other patterns that show them where the High had been and where hurricanes had gone. Meteorology can often be a bit of a mystery novel in progress when trying to figure out who got hit when and where before Europeans came to the Americas.  Botanists study tree rings and prehistoric sediments to piece together the past before the National Weather Service began and even further back before the incredible meteorologist Father Benito Vines and yes he was a Father in a monastery in Cuba who spent his time studying the patterns of hurricanes. He was able to make the first prediction of a hurricane to make landfall in Cuba in recorded history so while he may not have had a degree in meteorology ... meteorologists today have been learning much from studying his early research before the era of satellite imagery and computer models.

One of many articles on the the man that dedicated his life to studying hurricanes while multitasking his job in the religous world as well.

https://www.miamiarch.org/CatholicDiocese.php?op=Article_131017125417303_E

The point here is that the positioning of the HIGH can make all of the difference as I wrote back when if meteorologists say that the high is so big and strong that hurricanes may make it into the Gulf of Mexico it often means that Florida was in the way of that travel destination and in 2005 the Miami area was visited by three hurricanes including Katrina that went on towards a second destination.  We sat in the driveway and watched as the eye opened up and passed over us and calm weather with a light breeze enveloped us while we watched and felt the quiet of the moment knowing that soon enough the storm will return with added fury and pick up everything that had already fallen and blown in back in the opposite direction. 

Not sure what 2021 will actually hold in store though I have some ideas I will discuss more later this week but suffice it to say ... much depends on the location, strength and tenacity of the High that is currently taking up most of the Tropical Atlantic!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps...  to anyone and everyone who I may had alluded to or insulted or made laugh and roll your eyes (you know who you are) well sorry about that I was just this side of a nervous breakdown half the time partially trying to raise the kids on my own and with you driving me crazy. Oh what a time it was and in ways I wish I could write that carefree and silly and it's amazing to look back to and I will look a bit more during this Mercury Retrograde before putting it back in the corner of the closet buried with other things I don't want to think on too much ;) 

The dusty water colored memories of the way we were spinning like a carousel fast and furious is enough to make me fly over the cuckoo nest!  But oh what a time it was ....  just me, myself and I sitting up late at night typing fast getting everything out of me so I could function again in the morning until the actual hurricane season began and let me tell you this..........once it does there is NO turning back. This could be that sort of voraciously violent hurricane season or a confusing one where models have problems pinning down a track and when they do no one believes Houston could get that much rain the way people refused to believe that would happen in the early, exhausting days of modeling on what would become Hurricane Harvey. 

Note proofing... it's late on a Saturday Night and there is no hurricane today... so going to just type and smile and listen to this awesome song.