Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, June 17, 2021

92L at 90% Waiting on Recon. Large Area with Multiple Centers or is 1 Center Developing. Where Makes ALL the Difference. Fast Mover Closer to Land or More Time Over Water?

8 AM. 90% Chances of Development.

The NHC has inched the red X further higher.
That's worth  mentioning.

From far away I can see something in the BOC.
That's progress.
Closer up we can see the issue....

If you blow that up you will see a "center" of sorts.
Also around 1PM as a clock goes a second center.
A small nodular looking circulation center.
Does the larger, broader one take over further South.
Or does the energy jump to the node further to the North.
Makes a big difference if this forms to the South of the North.
More time over water as a messy system.
Or wrapping up closer in with less time to warn people.

Please bookmark this link above it is a wonderful water vapor loop that covers most of the Tropical Atlantic. If you click on it you will see a small area (highlighted above) where it sure looks like a center is trying to wrap convection around it and if that becomes the "center" we might have a real Tropical Storm vs a Subtropical system that is messy, sloppy and ripe with a lot of convection and multiple centers.

Convection still far from the center.
Is it East of the center or NE of the center??
Again there was that westbound tropical wave...'s moisture is there noticeable in the Yucatan Channel.

If and when it wraps.
It will look totally different than it does now.
Again I said "when" so it might not.

Recon is scheduled to go in this afternoon.
If they do we will have more information.
It's that simple.

Basically we have a potential problem.
Because of models we can see into the future.
Sometimes the crystal ball is clear...
...other times it needs to be cleaned as it's murky.

If the center is indeed developing further North.
They will have to relocate their X
And deal with this sooner rather than later.
Kind of a worst case scenario.

A real pin the head on the tropical disturbance.
That's a job for recon really.
But they need to be checking out the right area.
They are the best, they will give us the data we need.

Below is a longer discussion of the real problem.
Is this subtropical or tropical?
Is publicizing the Invest process good or bad?
How best to warn people in the Gulf of Mexico.... area prone to not having more than 2 days heads up.

Have a good day!
Take care and I'll update when there is more to say!

92L is still at 90% chances of development into "something" but what that thing is has yet to be defined. The word subtropical comes up as often these days as tropical and the NHC is talking depression not storm at the moment. I get that as this Invest has been extremely depressing. I'd have left it alone, pulled the plug and reinstated it as an Invest after it looks like an Invest. But that is not how the NHC has evolved over the years. Yes, you want some heads up because in the Gulf of Mexico things can come together really fast and some late season storm like Opal can ramp up into a Major Hurricane while everyone is watching the OJ trial and totally unaware that it's there as a danger as previous it was a late season tropical storm punctuating a busy hurricane season. 

In the very old days, like back in the 1980s and even the 1990s the NHC could and would label an area as a "tropical disturbance" and monitor it informing the locals that this could develop into a tropical storm over the next few days. There was a flow, a process and everyone understood it. Today people are oriented towards a good MEME and everyone wants some headline to use as Clickbait to draw you into the story deeper. The story is yet to be written and we are watching it in real time, slowly come together into whatever it is going to be and the reality is it's a RAINMAKER for an area that has be doused with too much water the last few months and isn't in the mood for anything tropical after the 2020 Hurricane Season that pummeled them repetitively.

We are waiting on recon to go in... you know the Hurricane Hunters.... and do their thing with their dropsondes and fancy radar and take lots of data that those back in Miami will crunch and send to the forecast department that works hand in hand and they will make a plan of action. We are also waiting for one center to take over and therein lies the "subtropical" label that keeps popping up. 

The Gulf of Mexico, both early in the season and late in the season, is prone to large, dirigible sort of areas of stormy weather that when they do not pull together into one neat mass of convection around a tight core can and will be tagged "subtropical" and that could happen should 92L continue to not cooperate. The NHC can go ahead and properly hoist watches, warnings and a forecast and should somewhere in this mess as it moves North further into the Gulf of Mexico closer to warm water off the coast transition into a real beautiful storm they will drop the subtropical faster than you can say "hot potato" and make it a Tropical Depression or call it Tropical Storm Claudette. 

Either way ran in an area from Louisiana to Florida will be brutal in some places, especially those places prone to flooding as many areas there are very low lying barrier islands, bayous and back bay areas with small towns you never heard of unless you are a fishermen.

I'll update later. I'll talk models later today so check back later, thanks!

Besos BobbiStorm

@bobbistom on Twitter and Instagram.

Twitter usually weather and Instagram whatever.

Ps we have come a long, long way since then....


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