Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

UPDATED 2 PM ETA Heads Towards Landfall FL Big Bend Rapidly... Weather Impacts Strong in Tampa. Crosses FL. Watch Out I-4 & I-95.

For what it's worth here is the cone.

But it's not really worth much now.

Because the wild weather is already there.
Note there are storms moving into Georgia from the East.
There is nothing on the other side of the "eye"
Let's call it a "center"

Florida is wet and has tornado warnings.
Small fast moving pop up twisters in bands.

Understand ETA is just caught in the flow.
High pressure on either side.
Being funneled up...

Again the best thing you can do now... pay attention to your local experts.
Keep a weather radio on...
Do not get nervous on 70 MPH winds.
The bouys aren't reading above 40 MPH.
Some gusts in the 50 to 60 range maybe.
Dry air is really killing it.
And that's good.

Excellent Live Coverage.

Mike is out and about showing Eta around town.
Eta liked Mike in the Keys so much... followed him home to Oldsmar.

Mike is awesome.
Nothing more beautiful than palms and a flag flying.
You can see how strong the wind is here...
You can follow him on Facebook or YouTube.

So not much more I can say.
NHC has been very off on timing.
They have been chasing ETA vs forecasting.
November storms are fickle and models bad.
Watch the flow and you know which way it is going.

Anywhere from Tampa to Crystal River it seems.
Cedar Key
But everyone gets weather.
It's a very demographic system ;)

More later..

BobbiStorm at 2:50 PM.
Read on ...
See this is what I wrote about.
It's about the WEATHER not the center.
Weather is everywhere
Compare and contrast data.
If it was a hurricane it was only for an hour or so.
It's a Tropical Storm... headed towards Tampa Bay.
And areas to the North.

Cone from 5 AM

Eta on the move.
Not playing games anymore.

Center with some hurricane wind out in GOM.
Weather is happening NOW in Florida.

This is Hurricane ETA above.
Yes the NHC upgraded it.
Yes a part of it is over land now.
The small strong center is offshore.
Moving NNE at 15 MPH.
The whole scenario is moving fast.

There is a big disconnect with this storm and it's being sold as a hurricane that will come in close to Tampa and when they do that they create an extreme flooding event along the coast between the heavy tropical rains and the surge of water that is literally shoved into every bay and estuary there. That neck of the woods is filled with small beach towns that never gained traction as cities but as places where people visit, go to fish, camp out and enjoy life. It won't be too enjoyable today, tomorrow or the day after. 

The NHC has jettisoned most of the early discussion from yesterday and the day before and is now moving along with a track that is becoming set in stone faster than expected. Models are very unreliable this time of year until close to landfall, now they currently are coming together. The front is on the move, Eta feels it and it's all merging together into one moisture laden mess. So while you could get strong winds of 60 to 75 MPH they would be mostly gusts not sustained winds and to the South of landfall there is the threat of tornadoes. Think of this like you would any strong front with a low embedded in it and tornadoes form where the dry air and the moisture meet. There's a lot of dry air to it's West and wind sheer is expected to be a factor as it gets closer to landfall. But again the NHC is talking about the "center" and there is weather now across a wide area of land.   Again while it was in the Florida Keys the stronger weather was way North of Miami so do not focus on the center and understand the center has been skipping along like a stone in a pond more than moving in a steady fashion. Systems like this are extremely hard to track in detail and yet it's easy to see where it is going.

Dark reds are DRY AIR.
Blues is Moisture.

Wind profile below.

RADAR for 10:30 AM this morning

The "landfall" may be tomorrow.
But the WEATHER is there TODAY.
This is the problem with ETA.

The Florida Keys to Naples to Tampa will be getting storms today as much of the weather is removed to the East from the center. Tampa Bay area has flooding problems always from this sort of system approaching the coast at this angle. The beautiful towns of Crystal River to Steinhatchee are more likely to get landfall IF this storm does not bend in anywhere to the South or more so the forward speed speeds up and the projected radar below for 10:30 AM tells you more than trying to understand the actual cone of concern.

By the time the center makes "landfall"
People will have dealt with the weather.
Possibly lost power.
And St. Augustine and Jax will have the weather.
This is not a well aligned September Hurricane.
Keep that in mind.

This graphic below will be updated soon.
But you get the idea here.
It's a wind graphic.
As always they change it in real time.

Current landfall thought is below.
This afternoon they may change the zone.
The weather from ETA will keep doing it's thing.

Note it can clip the Tampa Bay area...
..then the "center" make landfall again.
But everywhere in Central Florida gets it.

Once again their timing scenario was off... they adjust in real time.
The Cone is a disconnect with the NWS.
This is their warning grid for today.
I suggest you check it out.
If you are in the path of ETA
Find your city and follow their advice.

If you focus too much on the center line in the cone..'re gonna get whomped by weather.
So do not focus on the center of the cone.
Unless you are IN that center...
...know you can get stronger winds.
But tornadoes could be far from that center.

ETA is a moving target today in motion.

The signature has been RAIN.
The W Coast gets tornadoes often..
..from systems such as ETA

For me that's a concern.
They pop up anywhere and everywhere in real time.

So watch the radar.
Stay on top of late changing news.
And it's on a fast track back to the East Coast.
And the Atlantic Ocean.

I'll update about 2 PM today.
Check back then.
I have some appointments this morning.
Eta is a very fluid storm.
Zig zagging across Florida.
Back and forth.

Next target possible Savannah.....
...or out to sea or up the coast.
Again the weather is messy.


Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instgram.


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