Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, November 12, 2020

Updated. 4 PM ---98L 90% From NHC ...What Are They Waiting For? Looks Good. Models Show it Can Become Hurricane Iota ---ETA on the Move....... Theta Far Away..... Will Iota Form Today? Tampa Flooding Carolinas Flooding... Will Iota Stick to the Plan?


A funny thing happened on the way to looking at ETA
I wondered why the NHC has not yet designated 98L
That's very closed circluation.
Could tighten up a bit.
And there's dry air to it's North.
But  it's going to possibly wallop Jamaica with rain.
Maybe wind.

Models are more realistic now.
Either up into the GOM
Aiming for the Yucatan.
Or keep going West.
They also very in intensity.

So what are we waiting for?
Been holding at 90% for a while.

Many believe this will be one bad hurricane.
Hurricane Iota.

This is the season that just keeps going.

Has a look. I'll say that.

As for ETA looking good to but... always convection far from the center.

Or did a Low develop to the East of NHC position.
Either way interesting.
And it's raining in Raleigh.
Flooding in the Carolinas.

2020ing along.

I'll update when the NHC upgrades 98L

* * * 

This is where we are today.
ETA is a Gator Storm.
But the weather isn't there......

Actual radar shot.
Long tail ...
Merging with the front.
Pouring heavy Miami like rain in Raleigh

The creek is rising!

This is why I have said ignore the cone.
The cone is not preparing you for the story.

The cones for Eta and Theta below.

As for IOTA down in the Caribbean.

Models mostly take it into Central America.
Some new models broke with the pack.

Bottom line is either you believe this hits Belize, Central America and parts of Mexico and reforms in the Eastern Pacific or you see there is a chance it gets further North up into the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic. Much depends on where it forms latitude wise the lower it forms the further South it stays but hey early models and cones showed Eta crashing into Central America and dying there but then models broke from the pack and we see that happening again. So keep watching.

Lots of flooding in Tampa, Florida and today in the Carolinas. Water rescues going on currently in North Carolina and more will happen later today. 

I wrote a long blog and I lost it. Hasn't happened in a long time so I'm going to go take a very long shower and start over later in the day. 

Invest 98L has 3 options historically.
1. Crashes into Central America
2. Lifts up to the North finding a weakness with a front.
3. A strong front dips into the Caribbean and it boomerangs back ENE out to the Atlantic.

It's 2020 so everything is on the table. 
Have a good day... if you live on the East Coast this is another Isaias sort of combine with a front and ride it up the coast and it's November so you have that added in.

I'll update this afternoon.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram
Good song..... always makes me smile.

As for ETA 
Always a disconnect.
Weather not where the center is...


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