Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, November 04, 2020

UPDATED! 11 AM - Back at the Tropical Ranch.... Models Trying to Figure Out Who Wins or Loses & Gets ETA. Limbo Land Today. Cuba and Florida Pay Attn to ETA!

11 AM

Not much more clarity but getting closer.

ETA not the election...

bending to the left....
Cuba to Key West.

Sounds like a Hemingway novel...
Can I get a vote for Tampa? Naples?
Florida Panhandle?
Isle of Pines  (aka Youth)

Not talking a Major Hurricane.
So keep that in mind.
Most excellent discussion... can read it.

The timing officially is shown below but note many models disagree but this is from the NHC!

For those up in the Carolinas and beyond Florida.
Here's thoughts from one of my fav locals.
He's good.

See it's all a matter of perspective.
Where do you live....
... Cuba is getting ETA that's FOR SURE.
Florida? Maybe... 

Stay tuned.
Limbo Land.
A 2 for 1 song wise today ;)

Because no matter what your party is...
... today it should be 5 O'Clock Somewhere all day.


First let's look at EDA. 
Sitting over land.
But huge convective area over water.
This is like it's battery pack staying charged.
Once over water it can plug in and get juice.

I woke up this morning after staying up past 2 AM and nothing really has changed.  The Cone looks the same, give or take. The models remain messy and fluid and Eta is anchored over land but still spinning nicely sucking in energy from the Pacific and the Caribbean.  So here are the statistics below.

NRL map that I love.
Always correlates with NHC
But grid usually wider, further.

Sometimes they differ more.
Other times not.
Let's take off the 5 day grid.
3 day is more reliable currently.

Note once it begins to move it moves.
That's the problem for Florida.
As it would, could be speeding up.
How strong will it be?

MY thoughts are at the bottom.
Scroll through the data first.
Thanks for your patience.


Below is based on the EURO
It's a great graphic.
Weathernerds below.

Use the link to see it in real time.
Great idea really.

Good link to keep, great site in general.

Another good link shown below.

First off the speckled clouds in the GOM are cold air.
That will moderate some over the next few days.
But its hard to see this ramping up wildly.
So what ETA was headed into Central America.
Is not what it will be moving North towards Florida.
And does Louisiana once again steal the storm?

Where does ETA make it's USA landfall?
Who will be President?

God Bless the USA.

Eta should make landfall before.......
....we know for sure who is President.
Possibly Theta too at this point....
Hopefully before November 30th..
..and the first snow!

My bottom line. 
If you live in Florida and especially my beloved Florida Keys it's pay close attention time to Eta and where it crosses Cuba and expect you will get weather from this but how much weather is still too close to call.  Miami is breathing a bit easier as the track seems to pull left but that really depends on timing, forward speed of Eta and the front and the JetStream. After it pulls left will it pull right later? Too close to call. If you are in Louisiana you're like "oh let Florida take this one" but I'm in North Carolina land of too close to call but feeling safe from Eta.  

Yup... Limbo land today with regards to weather and politics. I'm not surprised the nation is divided so sharply, half my family doesn't talk to the other half in Miami . . .  I try hard not to talk politics and I try hard not to tell my kids "hey you might get a hurricane" but what I am telling you is this... 

It's closer to being over but November produces odd storms with twists and turns in track and fronts that strengthen or weaken as fast as some states go back and forth red or blue as the pundits try to spin the election results and meteorologists debate which models are better handling ETA.

I'm proud two of my kids worked the polls looking more like storm troopers in StarWars but with clear masks over face masks and my other son who worked outside the poll telling people to vote for Linda (?) and I'm going to sit back today, try to get stuff done and change the channel a lot and loop loops and it just is what it is and I hate saying that but for now it is what it is.... remember some models take it into the Pacific but we don't believe that but pointing it out.  Could ETA die and a new storm form from the convection previously connected to ETA? I've been asked that....   Ask me tomorrow. This will be ETA in the same way MITCH was MITCH on it's second landfall.

Mitch above.
Eta below?

Rain for Florida and the SE...
The 5 Day Rain Cone.

It is what it is.

More later...

Stay well, stay safe and keep your sense of humor and don't eat the Hurricane Supply Twinkies nervously while watching election results you may need them for a hurricane. 

I'll update later.
Besos BobbiStorm
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram

Ps... Miami has a female mayor for the first time in history so that seems ground breaking. As a Bubby Savta Abuela I'm kind of happy about that regardless of her party because it's time the Banana Republic let a woman try to run it :) 


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