Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Thursday, May 28, 2020

2020 Hurricane Season. How Busy? Where Will They Make Landfall? Seasonal Update & Forecast Part 1.

Mike is great and I mean that everywhere.
You can listen to his Facebook Live.
Follow him online.
Download his App or watch him on Youtube.
He educates you and entertains you. A win win!

Otherwise in the tropics today...
I'll defer to my favorite Miami Meteorologist!

This is Part 1 of my 2020 Forecasts and Discussion.
June 1st, 2020 I'll post my own thoughts.
How busy it will be?
Who is at risk?
And Analog Seasons from Hurricane History.
It will be busy we know that already.
That's not a forecast it's a fact.
You can follow my tweets on @bobbistorm
My thoughts, my life and my friends.

Going into the start of the Hurricane Season.
We are watching the GFS EURO and ICON models..
..for where the C and D storm may form.
The Caribbean may produce another storm...
...that forms further to the North.
Possible system in Atlantic.
But nothing is forecast for several days.
So let's talk about the 2020 Hurricane Season now.
We've been so busy we had 2 storms in May.
June 1st, 2020 official starting date.

Leaving you the links at the bottom blog today because this is intended to be your guide to the 2020 Hurricane Season. When I refer to Hurricane Country I mean specifically any beach or town from Maine to Brownsville Texas. I also mean obvoiusly any place in the Caribbean and for my part Miami is the capital of the Caribbean in ways so we all watch Miami, Cuba as well as Jamaica and the various large and small islands along the way. Central America, Mexico and the North Coasts of South America and the various vacation destinations near those beautiful tropical places that are prone during Hurricane Season to tropical weather.

If you're looking for things to do with your kids this summer.
Print out some maps and teach them how to track hurricanes.
They will learn both geography and meteorology.
And as advisories come out often they will be busy.
Most of the people I talk on learned to do this when young.
And, many of my friends did it for a living at the NHC.
How to track? Google it.
They will learn great skills.
And you'll be thrilled they are busy.
Buy a weather radio. Let them use it.

Today's post is all about 2020 Hurricane Season and I'll return to regular tropical discussion and a little bit of Hurricane History that we hope won't be repeating anytime soon next week. This is Part 1 to be followed by Part 2 on June 1st and it's all about the Hurricane Season that already began, but that will begin "officially" in a few days. There are many meteorological ingredients currently that show us what sort of stew or gumbo may be brewing as we get deeper into the Hurricane Season. A good Gumbo needs time to brew and for the flavors to merge together. The same goes with Pimento Cheese that is really easy to make if you have all the ingredients. 

Ingredients are facts when it comes to discussing whether a hurricane season will be busy and has the potential for multiple landfalls or whether it will bring weather far out into the shipping lanes where eels swim in the Sargasso Sea. When it comes to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECASTING it's not about coming up with a wide variety of numbers such as "between 6 and 11 hurricanes will form" but it's all about WHERE WILL THEY FORM AND WHERE WILL THEY MAKE LANDFALL. Not all hurricanes make landfall, many dance far out in the Atlantic curving off of Africa too soon and they become beautiful "swimmers" as in beautiful on satellite imagery and not rearranging our coastal beaches or causing inland flooding.

So I'm more concerned with WHERE they may go and I'm going to leave you here with two excellent, very knowledgeable people I know who over time have never let me down. For the last several years they put out charts and maps and statistics and gave explanations and then I watched as hurricanes such as Michael and Florence came knocking at the doors of those towns. The hurricanes followed the meteorological patterns that were set up early on and traced the highs, followed the weakness in the high and looked for an area of low pressure to take aim at and if a town such as Wilmington or Myrtle Beach or Mexico Beach was in it's way so be it because Mother Nature don't care about your concerns or if you are trying to stay home for Covid... Mother Nature does what Mother Nature does and it's that simple. It is what it is and it is Hurricane Season 2020 so start preparing now.

Let's start with Jim Williams 
I know Jim well. I respect Jim.
He does an incredible amount of research.
Before putting out his Seasonal Forecasts.

Please read his blog. He keeps it short and serious. A chart below shows the depth of his research and his vast knowledge of Hurricane History. Due to the high interest in the 2020 Hurricane Season with the concerns of Covid 19 he asked to share his information that he usually only sends out to his subscribers. 


His top 20 cities 

Generally he sends that to paid subscribers.
But due to Covid19 and wanting to get the word out.
He asked to share it and so I am.

His map is below.

A close up of the map shows the concern from the GOM.
Other areas are listed.
But see where his emphasis is this year.

Next we have Rob from
I won't tell you how long I've been following him...
...or Jim because we don't want to say how old I am.
But it's been a long, long time.
He has never steered me wrong.
He has a pay site. 
Check him out.
And he is on Twitter as is Jim so...
...follow them and their advice.

The GOM is at high risk.
Caribbean also is at high risk.
Cities along the E Coast will be depending on...
...the exact location of the High Pressure Ridge.

Rob from Crown Weather shows why below.

So we have both Jim and Rob conerned on the Gulf of Mexico.

Next we have Hurricane Man.
Josh AKA iCyclone

You can follow @icyclone everywhere.
But know he goes longer on his Facebook Page...
..than he does on Twiter or Instagram.
So check in there often as that's what he does.
From his Facebook post last night.

 I'm adding in the location where the very wise and awesome Josh aka iCyclone is setting up his base of operations this year.  I won't pull the mask off the old lone ranger ever but trust me he's not just "some dude" he's one of the smartest, wittiest and most adventorous people you will ever meet with one deep, defining passion and that is to be in the eye of a hurricane. And, normally when I say that I know he means only the BIG ONE vs a minimal Category 1 or 2; he dumped Florence for a bigger one further away and I teased him but he was right as Florence had seen better days and he was looking for an intense eye to be in not a dawdling, rainmaker. It is worth noting that Mister Hurricane Man is setting up in the same area that both the other two people here have pointed to as probable areas of concern. If I was you ........that would really concern me..... if I lived near those hurricane destinations.
Again a hurricane or tropical storm can pop up everywhere (Lord knows we saw that yesterday with Miss Bertha) and not all storms will follow the general pattern as the atmosphere always takes a break and does kinky things that throw a wrench into the overall plan so if you live in Hurricane Country preapare for a busy season as we haven't even made it to June 1st and we are looking for Cristobal to form soon.  More on that in a few days. You can look online at the models and if you have problems finding them they are on the top left of Mike's site. And, if you can remember this phrase that is pretty easy to remember and spell you can go to directly to the source. You can follow Crankyweather, Dabuh, Thor and well check out who I retweet on Twitter and as always choose wisely who you follow as the truth is long range models are mostly for "fun" to shoot the tropical breeze with and some are serious, some are playful and sometimes we are serious and playful all at the same time. We aren't the NHC and well you know where to find them.

So that said... I'm going to leave you some links and maps and then I'm going to go make some pimento cheese and a "blintz casserole" and some brisket and chicken for the holiday of Shavous that always begins close to the start of the Hurricane Season. Sunday I will do a long, in depth look at models and what we can expect to see in June of 2020 as we roll into Prime Time Hurricane Tracking Season.

Thanks for your patience and as always follow who I follow on Twitter and you know who I trust the most or enjoy talking with as I'm always talking and retweeting what the post as they are a great team and they do a great job always. And please download this App or become familiar with them on Twitter, Instagram and in general online as they rock... they will rock you like a hurricane!

On the holiday of Shavous we make dairy dishes.
As I'm a Southern Jew for many generations.
I'm making Pimento Cheese!
Goes good with Lox and Bagels....
Regarding Pimento Cheese.. a Southern Classic.
Using this recipe but as always playing with it.
Every pimeto cheese recipe is personal.
It was maligned in a movie a while back by a Yankee.
But where I come from it's creamy, golden delicous.
I've seen it in Sushi!
My cousin & I would lick it off our fingers fast.
While no one was looking :)
It's finger licking good!
Goes with Bourbon too!

As for cheesecake and Shavous.

For a regular version and KETO....
.... you can check out @srulycooks on Instagram.
Everyone is making them this year except for me.
I bought 2 small Edwards Cheesecakes.
Ice Cream. Kahlua and well you get the idea.
I'll be offline May 29th and 30th for Shavous.
So leaving this up as a Pinned Tweet for a while.

Thanks for reading.
Thanks for being here.
Please prepare carefully for this year.
Taking in any special needs you may have for Covid19.
Life goes on.....  we are opening up.
But Covid will still be a player for a long time.
And it could complicate your Hurricane Plan!
If you don't have a plan... now is the time.

Sweet Tropical Dreams,
@bobbistorm on Twitter and Instagram.
Ps... I'll give my own thoughts on June 1st.
Check back then for BobbiStorm's Predictions.
Enjoy the videos below.


At 11:08 PM, Blogger Hurricane Windows & Doors of Florida said...

Thanks for the update.

Be Prepared for the Deadly Hurricane Season 2020 with Fixed Impact Windows


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