Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Question on Home Grown Trouble Memorial Day Weekend? Models speculating. Stay informed just in case..

sat_wv_east_loop-12.gif (640×512)

This is what the water vapor loop looks like Tuesday Morning.
System parked over the Mid Atlantic.
Plains exploding in their way.
Diving air down through the Caribbean.
Everything swinging around the huge dark hole low.

How do we get from here to there?

That remains the tropical mystery of today.

A lot of discussion about a "LOW" forming off the SE Coast.
I've read Florida.. Georgia.. Carolinas.
Models have been consistently hinting.
We have moved from hinting to graphics.

The above picture is from Mike's Weather Page on Facebook.
If you are inclined to want to share your thoughts......
....go share your thoughts

Great place to get the pulse for what people are thinking.
The storm people who are hoping.
The general public hoping not.
Knowledge is power.
Power in this case means the ability to prepare.

So front moved down through Florida.
Front stalled out and went stationary over South Florida.

The high pressure ridge is to the North locks in rain to the South.
Always watch stalled out fronts late in the Spring.

On Tuesday the High pulls away a bit.

And a low pressure area of some kind forms.
Basically without the High sitting to the NE...
It fills in the gap.
Very basically.

Then the low moves back to shore.

Sort of like a cold front that goes stationary..
..and then a warm front goes north again.
Similar but different.
There's a tropical wave mixing with an old stalled out front.
2 basic ingredients for early season trouble.
Add in warm temperatures..ocean temps warm.

And that becomes the question.
A sort of quirky question with multiple choice answers.
Is this merely trouble from the tropics or a named system?
Usually it's just an early non tropical sort of low.
But sometimes in years like this we end up with named storms.
Way too soon to make that call but either way the weather is there.
Home grown brew is possible.
The next name on the list is Bonnie.
Tropical Storm Beryl did this in 2012.

I've seen it happen many times.
Each system just a little bit different.

The reason I showed these images is to highlight a loop.

It's on Spaghetti Models down about halfway thru the page.
It's the official 7 day forecast the NWS uses to prepare your forecast.
It's a good indicator of future events and it changes in real time.
Well the 5 and 7 day change more than the other days.

Follow my red arrow I drew you above.

Remember the old AOL?
Favorites were little hearts you saved.
 I know dating myself here.
A lot of us grew up on AOL technically speaking.

One of my favorites is there.. 

latest72hrs.gif (947×405)

Keep watching that loop it's your tropical crystal ball!

Think of Mike's Spaghetti Models as a graphic of your favorites.
I really miss those little hearts.
Life seemed sooo simple. 
Being silly here. 

The possibility is there.

Personally think the rain is more likely to affect Charleston..
Just to the North or just to the South.
Anywhere from Jax to OBX is in it this far out.
Sorry to rain on your Memorial Day Parade there..

So far the NHC says nada happening.

There is a far off chance that something in the Caribbean catches our attention.
The NHC does highlight the wave in their discussion.

The dominate feature... 

Some people are watching that dominate wave.

I'll add regardless of where trouble forms it most likely will be home grown.

Whatever forms IF it forms.
Will be a Little Bitty ...
Maybe a little bitty Bonnie?

Might put an exclamation point on the start of the Hurricane Season!

Hope your Memorial Day is not a wash out.
At least it won't be like Labor Day of 1965.
Read my previous blog on Hurricane Betsy.
Betsy took a bite out of that holiday in Florida..
...and then kept going to Louisiana.

I'm going up to the Big Apple for a few days.
I'm scheduled to speak on a boat again.
Apparently I speak on boats.
Either way.. 
I'll be updating from the road.
Stay tuned.

Also check in on Twitter for fastest updates.
@bobbistorm on Twitter

The wait goes on for the elusive yellow circle.

My bottom line is it's all speculation until we see a yellow circle.
But we do all love to speculate.
Models are often the definition of speculation.

Speaking of speculation...
The new Star Trek movie looks really good..

Summertime... hurricanes and big movies.
Then comes football!


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