Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, January 26, 2015

Which Model Wins? Kardashian Explanation of the GFS & EURO Problem. Hurricane Force Winds Forecast for NY to BOS Metro

53 Million People being told to prepare. There is one for sure here in this set up.  Some one, some where is going to be annoyed and yell "over hype" and others aren't going to know what hits them until it does...

Where's the storm now?

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Just about to push off of NC and form off the Outer Banks & ZOOM up to NY & BOSTON Metro.


Keep watching this in real time:

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Currently in Brooklyn it's snowing.......pre-storm snow maybe but snow..

(note there is 100% chance of snow thru Tuesday...)

Fly in the ointment is it has already started to snow... and some of the snow is blowing around.

This snow is NOT from the real blizzard but it's already piling up in Brooklyn...

A friend in Jersey where it's snowing heavy is taking his "public transportation" into work.. 

He posted this with the caption "Here goes nothing"

The big problem here is that no weather person wants to stake their fame on one weather model.

And, as always there is a shoot out going on between the GFS and the EURO.
IF the storm goes right & GFS wins and NY gets less than expected he wins.
If the storm stays on track and the EURO model wins NYC loses....

I'm going to pass along my explanation to a friend that may help you understand the problem.

Let's say that the EURO is Kim Kardashian. 

She boasts 28 Million followers and counting... 

Then there is her sister Khloe who people love to watch as well ...  12.4 Million followers.

KHLOE is the GFS Model
Every one watches KIM... but they also keep their eye on Khloe.

I hope this clears up the problem the weather people one wants to discount the GFS.

No one wants to make a FORECAST on their OWN without the models... 
.... but there are 2 models everyone watches the most..

And then..............there's the NAM...  we watch but... not the EURO

See.... this is the problem. Conflicting info all good... worth watching ;)

So now I hope you understand the weather models better... just think Kardashian sisters.

Don't think too hard as you need to prepare for #JUNO  

Something to remember and keep in mind while obsessing on why school is open today in New York but the Mayor wants everyone to stay out of the parks and off the streets... go in early, leave early.

Now that we've addressed the models let's get back to the social impacts of this storm:

NYC is on the southern edge of the concern zone for the storm that has not yet formed. The snow you are getting now is a pre-game sort of event. Like a tailgate party that no one is going to.. School in Philly is canceled today at Noon.  NYC has school today...apparently they don't want to cancel any of the regent exams scheduled for today ??? ???  and the wording oddly says "expected storm" vs "predicted storm" or "forecasted storm" with wording that would lead way too many to believe it's not a done deal until it really happens.  NYC Schools not showing the models or the weather people much faith or love here.

If you have a problem with this feel free to let the Mayor's office know how you feel:

Remember keep it to under 300 words. 

The reason I am posting this is because so many of my friends in NYC are at a loss for words.

If you find some words, send them to the Mayor. 

NOTE... they did suspend Alternative Side Parking TODAY.... 

What bothers me here is that the Mayor's office keeps calling it tomorrow's storm...
The storm starts today, this afternoon and this evening. 
That's like saying a hurricane doesn't start until the eye makes landfall..

 What is important to remember is this is a 2 or 3 day event. The early snow is not the actual storm. This is not a hurricane that hits all at once. There is no storm surge. However, IF everyone leaves work at once you will end up with this even if you live up north.

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The above is Atlanta last year.  Every one left at the same time...  SNOW GRID LOCK

Do you really want to be on the Jersey Turnpike  in that sort of traffic jam?

Or worse.... the scene below in Raleigh last year.

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Most people in Raleigh come from UP NORTH... they didn't believe it would snow until it did.
And then...............they ALL hit the road at the same time... 

The good part of the snow falling now in New York (pre-game snow) is it may nudge people to leave before the bigger storm hits late today and tonight.

A simple reminder here that you should get batteries for your old radio in case you lose power..
In case you forgot what they look like... look in the back of your closet, buy batteries.

If you lose power or your signal battery powdered radios still work really well..

Until then you can listen to NASH FM online.. note they are updating on the winter storm!


When they say "shelter in place" they mean "SHELTER IN PLACE"

Hurricane Force Winds are expected. Snow drifts.

Get home... stay home and shelter in place... hunker down...
Stay on top of late breaking changes in your forecast area..

Again...Hurricane Force Winds COULD blow the snow and tides from NY to Boston...

Stay tuned... Stay safe!

Mark Sudduth streaming live

I'll be back later today blogging in real time as events unfold...

Besos Bobbi

Ps... pic of my friend Hesh getting on the bus into NY from NJ...
Check out his music below... he loves to go to the beach during the off season..
Stay off the beach with this storm ... just enjoy the views of it on his video I know I do..


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