Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Sunday, January 25, 2015

It's All About the Timing... Where & When Does the Blizzard Hit... Prepare & Hunker Down

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Occurs to me how alike blizzards and hurricanes can be in that they are simply weather systems caught up in the upper air patterns tugged this way and that

Remember Hurricane Arthur from last year?

Of course the track for this storm described as a historic blizzard hooks in somewhere around Eastern Long Island and slams into New England more like the Block Island Hurricane. But, doesn't hook in THAT much. Shows you how no two storms are exactly alike!

We do plot tracks for winter weather but they are more guesstimates than forecasts.

Here's one including a cyclonic loop. 

You all remember how hurricanes loop? Sometimes blizzards do too.

They are both..................CYCLONES!

Mind you if we gave a track like this for a hurricane we'd be out of business.
Using crayons on napkins in bars slurping Hurricanes... 

But as winter weather evolves fast in real time they get away with it.

So where is HASHTAG #JUNO now??   (rolling eyes on name)

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As of now it's somewhere over Tennessee... of course if you read this in the morning ...

You'll see it closer to the Outer Banks over NC .. maybe.

Lovely LSU WV Loop..

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The big question here is on timing.

IF it moves faster and doesn't dig as deep it will end up further to the left aka East.

Drudge is taking this serious... it's a drama... it's news... it has legs.

I'm wondering how Superman never gets too cold too fly in bad weather or Alaska..
...but I digress...

I wish I knew what movie that was but I am NOT asking anyone... 
....aww look a happy ending.......... 

Well we know it's not Love Story

Mayor of New York has told everyone to stay off the streets tomorrow.
OUT OF THE PARKS... Stay home.
If you MUST travel take public transportation (??!??)

But.... school is open so send your first grader to school for a hot meal ???

This will all evolve in real time... if you live in the warning areas, set your alarms tomorrow for earlier than normal and check with your local forecasters, news media sites and the NWS.  

I've said it before with hurricanes but it really relates to blizzard. They evolve in REAL TIME, moment by moment and the slightest change in timing or track early on can be extrapolated later to a dangerous degree..........or as the Mayor says "treacherous" which is of course why I want Johnnie walking to school tomorrow.... as Johnnie has to get home somehow if the storm comes in earlier. Parks closed, schools open. Ummmmm

My bottom line. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Make sure you have:

Flashlights. Batteries for Flashlights... think hard you will remember what they are...
Gas. Oh... some gas stations are already out in Queens and Brooklyn... ouch.
Diapers for kids.
Baby Wipes for everyone... always good to have. 
MEDICINE... inhalers for instance and first aid supplies.. all the things you should have.. 
Things to do to keep you busy inside so you don't get bored and go looking for trouble.
Keep your cell phones fully charged... 

It is just as possible to believe that this system will go wide right and the Metro NYC area will be spared the worst of it. Does happen. Just don't bet the brownstone on it... ya hear?

I like this image... shows me getting some snow. Hmnn that's interesting.. 

Jet Stream:

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Watch that moisture due to feed into this system aka blizzard...aka Cyclone

IF the cyclone moves faster it forms in a different spot...changes a lot.

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One last loop..

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Pushing down... going EAST.... more coming down to push it down... 

All a matter of timing...  what a drama...

Are the models right? I mean ...right aka correct... 

(it's a mercury retrograde... can we trust the models?? oh retrograde...hmnnn like a loop...)

Stay tuned. 

I'll be blogging in real time tomorrow so check in often. 

If you know someone traveling the airlines are working their hardest to fix problems before it starts.

Check for AMTRAK

Check in to see if New York City schools have changed their minds...

You can enroll in their don't call us we'll call you system ;)

Hang tough and be prepared... there's another storm behind this one... just so you know.

The always incredible Ryan Mauve is bringing that point home tonight. 
Stay tuned and don't rush off to find the groundhog just yet.

That's right Virginia and North Carolina.. it's not over til it's over.

Newest models doing quirky things... showing snow going lower flirting with NC 

Is it possible the timing is off and the storm is forming faster and therefore going to form... 
not where the models said it would.. which would make it's end point different too?

The models are talking... do you believe them???

Besos Bobbi

Ps you thought I was going to put up All About the Bass didn't you??
With a storm it is about the BASE... the starting point...the timing... 


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