Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

More models call for a South Florida Hit from Hurricane Rina

More and more of the better models are making a case for some sort of landfall in the State of Florida from Rina, whereas last night the harder right turn out to sea was in play. I suppose this can change by tonight again, which is why we keep watching. I mean you have a Hurricane that is going Major very soon, Category 3 and it has Florida in it's sights on the 5th day. Not something to ignore.

Of course some of the models take Rina in a small circle, a little loop in the Yucatan Passage however the stronger the hurricane the more likely she will want to go poleward (NORTH) and that is what most of the models are picking up on today.

This model in particular makes me nervous, nervous in that it would impact a lot of people even as a weak storm. Of course we also had a weak Floyd back in 1987 that made the same trek up out of the Caribbean and didn't do much damage in the Miami area. Wilma and Floyd, both similar storms for this time of year.

There is a reason that climo wins almost every time. It's the average of climate history over the long term, averaged out into the most likely pattern. Sometimes it loses, usually it wins. Time and time again it wins out.

Check out Wilma, a similar storm around the same time of year. A great analog storm.

Tell me why this storm would not do exactly what Wilma did track wise or Floyd from 1987?

Another strange Fujiwawa sort of track from another model, extremely....highly unlikely but worth watching:

Not likely as I don't see the newer storm killing off Rina, but it is fun to watch in a funky funny way.

Another problem with the newer models is the TIMING in that the models are speeding up and now taking Rina towards Florida faster and faster. This could be based on the fact that she is a stronger storm and more likely to be grabbed by the frontal boundary than a weak storm. However, the front does not seem to be diving so much...which is maybe why the NHC is actually giving wind probabilities for cities up the coast from Tampa to Jacksonville. Seems far out to me considering yesterday we were talking on her taking a hard right turn south of Cuba eastward.

Another problem is that the NHC seems not to feel that they have a good handle on her long term track (out past 3 days) and that's the part of the track that may or may not affect South Florida.

It is highly unlikely, though possible, that Rina will come to South Florida as anything more than a strong Tropical Storm or Category 1 Hurricane. That is not carved in stone mind you and we are talking Hurricanes not pumpkins.

So, keep watching..... stay tuned and enjoy the sunshine and the tropical breezes because it won't last forever.

BOTTOM LINE: What do I think will happen?

I think it's very likely that Rina will follow Floyd and Wilma's general path towards the State of Florida. She might enter Florida Bay after slicing across the Florida Keys, trek her way across the Everglades and exit south Florida somewhere from the Dade/Broward Line to Port St. Lucie depending on her angle of assault. Yesterday I thought maybe the Florida Straits, now I am thinking the front is not strong enough and she's stronger than she looks. Think Tropical Weather if you live in South Florida on either coasts and for sure the Florida Keys. Also, depending on the timing, tides...she could make a real wet mess flooding out whichever Key she decides to cross on her way towards Florida. If this new trend verifies.

Lastly, the NHC stayed conservative yesterday with their timing on Rina. I mentioned this. All the other models had her moving faster and the NHC played it conservative. Not sure how they will play it at 5pm for the big nightly news shows.

Either way enjoy this New Age Romanian Gypsy song ;) <-----NRG Band Rina Rina (great beat, love it)


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