Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, October 24, 2011

Hurricane Rita.... Deja Vu Wilma?

Hurricane Rina became a Category 1 Hurricane today as she rapidly intensified from a weak Tropical Storm to hurricane in less than one day. Models take her towards Florida at the end of the forecast package. The question of when and where remains the question. Some of the models show her catching the front and making a sharp easterly turn (which could be over the Florida Straits near Cuba) or over the Keys and exiting over the Miami/FLL area as a weaker storm.

The new model runs will take into account her currently stronger intensity and will hopefully be more accurate. Please note that the NHC has already said at 5pm they currently have low confidence in the model package they are using to forecast the storm. Hopefully, the next model runs will clarify the situation tremendously.

Note the NHC time forecast track lags behind all the other models shown in the link above dramatically. I imagine they will have to adjust their timing as the new models keep coming in showing Rina moving towards Florida at the end of the forecast package.

Stay tuned for the next updated package at 11pm. It should be a doozie, a real interesting read.

Climo takes this form towards Florida. Rina is totally typical of an October system catching a cold front out of the Caribbean. It is as typical as it gets. The strength is the question and some models see her becoming a major hurricane over the next few days.

For now...her form is perfect, she is a beautiful storm.

Keep watching.... Bobbi

Now it appears the question is where and when and even more so how strong it will become....

Stay tuned... Bobbi


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