Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Trouble with TD 16/Nicole

She's an ugly duckling. It really is that simple. Thought on this in the gym but sadly couldn't type while doing what I was doing.

Point..and keeping it short as I have an appointment.

1... There are always multiple centers in weak tropical storms more than in depressions. Depressions tend to be more simplistic..they find the center and report it.

2... Overnight a massive area of deep convection formed to the south of where the center of TD 16 is... a few models did show something like this happening however they kept 16/Nicole as a separate entity moving faster. AGAIN... NHC has been OFF on timing all season, track good...timing off. Nicole moved to slow yesterday to race off as planned.

3... She's one of those storms that now is messy and well like a girl turning 16 and she still looks 14. She hasn't developed, she hasn't found her poise or learned how to flirt... she's just a girl on the edge. At some point down the road she is going to find her center and wrap and look like one beautiful bathing beauty...but right now she is in the ugly duckling stage.

4... The center with the strong winds over Cuba is almost impossible to find and a new area is beginning to spin.

5... This storm is a lot like Earl of 1998..a very similar season to this one in ways, coming off the El Nino of the Century (as hype called it) and Earl looked so pathetic in it's formation stages we wanted to call it 3 Faces of Earl.. but he did come together and did make landfall and made his claim to fame...despite a messy start.

Timing again is off with the NHC and they have a bit of egg on their face that is undercooked and they are trying to figure out what TD 16 is going to do based on the models that did not see this happening the first time around.

So much for models.

Besos Bobbi

Back later...


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