Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Nicole Killed Off At 5... Lot of strong weather down there

Just not where the NHC and their models expected it to be... you can see for yourself where she is and how strong she is and if anything she has a bit of a banding going on which she did not have a few hours ago. Go figure.

Weather is fluid. Models become stagnant. A good friend made a comment to me that the models have become a bit of a crutch, too much reliance on the models and not enough on long term knowledge of how these systems usually play out.

For one... Nicole never took off like a bat out of hell even tho she is moving slowly. She reformed further south which was not part of their plan. And, like I said the other day they are very happy to hand her off to the National Weather Service.

However.............. the NHC has for years been tracking extra-tropical storms and cyclones so why can't they continue to do so? Especially when she is supposed to make landfall up the coast as a strong "GALE CENTER" which basically means it has winds of Tropical Storm force intensity and higher...

Just saying.... the energy from Nicole that is STILL down there near Cuba far to the south of the old center that was killed off like some Cubans caught on a raft 2 miles off shore and sent back to Cuba.... and that energy will come north when it wants to.. then a new low forms (if you believe the NHC discussion) and it moves inland around Wilmington (give or take, always easy to call a hit on Wilmington.. odds are they usually get it) and then it moves inland towards Richmond and rains over the Piedmont and well into the mountains. More so... the warnings up here are for the strongest wind and most severe weather to be on the cool side of the frontal boundary which means inland...

Heavy steady rain in Raleigh.... heavy rain in Miami... everyone's wet and the NHC is "not dealing" with a system that is still tropical. Easy to downgrade... what next?

Further to the east are two yellow circles to watch... and they bear watching.

I'll be off for the next 3 days for the Jewish Holidays of Simchas Torah and then Shabbos and by Saturday night we will see how much damage this "Gale Center" did...

Considering Wilmington already has record rainfall totals.... I've heard talk there could be more rain than Floyd..then again have heard it will go inland...

Only time will tell...

Besos Bobbi


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