Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Wednesday, January 09, 2008

New Hampshire.. Polls Wrong Like Bad Hurricane Models

When the models are bad..they are really bad and it seems when the polls are wrong they are wrong BIG time.

Hillary Wins! And, she wins consistently... may have been close but was no neck and neck Fins/Jets shoot out. Was consistently ahead, same margin... consistently.

Also.. Hillary got more votes basically than any other candidate percentage wise although there are a lot of Republican votes up for grabs when you count up Ron Paul's votes and Guiliani's votes.. where would those votes have gone? Huckabee or Romney.

As for Romney, I'm sorry... I think he could cry a river and never get any more votes. Just my thoughts.

I think Bill's campaigning did more as much for Hillary as her show of emotion (she did not cry a river... showed emotion... what made the Tin Man human in the Wizard of Oz? Lion can cry and laugh, but the Tin Man... wasn't really made of Tin but had a heart afterall.... )

So Hillary has a heart...

Edwards and Obama have been real stale with new messages .... same speech, over and over...

After a while when Obama speaks I begin to blur over, eyes blurry and go "what IS he saying?" Although last night he made the biggest play I have heard yet for the "black vote" and even though I think his win in IOWA was more geographic than racial he is going to ratchet up the rhetoric going into South Carolina. If he can't beat Hillary there.. he has a big problem. And, if Obama is not surging... not the best thing since white bread was thrown aside for healthy, whole wheat... he will lose some of his supporters who were originally Hillary Clinton supporters. I'm sorry but his speech last night was the weakest of the losers speeches, I thought for a minute he was going to launch out into "I have a dream..."

Huckabee... spent less money than almost anyone. I heard a figure, not confirmed by SNOPES...that he spent $41,000 in NH. That's a lot of votes per the least amount of money.

Edwards needs new speech writers...

Obama needs to risk something.. and show who he really is.. not some repackaged JFK sort of All American Young Man out to change the world. I think he lost a lot of college votes to Ron Paul... go figure I guess some college kids really believe those Facebook sites that say Ron Paul IS the most Presidential.

McCain... good man, honorable, really a good man but can he win the country as a candidate? If you get into a shoot out with just Republican voters in states where only republicans can vote for republicans... can he beat Huckabee?



Is it possible that this year we could have two conventions when no one is sure 100% who will get the nomination after the 3rd primary?

I could see 2 brokered conventions... not probable but possible.

Someone better go shake those poll computers around the way the NHC plays with the models because they are not showing the pulse of America here...nope.. they sure aren't.

Congrats Hillary because as I see it.. she pulled the highest number.
39% of votes to 37% for McCain..

As for my favorite weather/political friend... thanks for the memories last night.
Was fun... still think you like McCain cause it really sounds like McCane :P

Besos Bobbi
You are the best.. Bobbi :)


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