Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

Felix Gaining Strength Before Landfall ... Possibly a 5 at Landfall

As Felix moves a bit slower but steadily towards the west he is doing the "worst case scenario" thing and intensifying INTO landfall. Whether he will be measured as a very strong 4 or a 5 at landfall is pretty much a crap shoot and just a matter for trivia as whether it has winds of 5mph more or less won't make much of a difference for the towns and villages filled with people in his path.

Luckily, he picked a somewhat sparsley populated area to make landfall but there are people there and as the NHC has said.. this is not just about winds at landfall but towns and villages further inland that will suffer untold flooding, mudslides and certain high death figures from the rain which will spread slowly inland.

Unfortunately not only is Felix intensifying at landfall but he is slowing down at landfall. Bad break on both levels for Central America.

A storm surge of 18ft should accompany the small, compact storm as it crashes ashore in a few hours.

I'm short on time today so I'll leave it at this. We watched last night and his eye rebuilt after injesting a large dry slot that was very visible on water vapor imagery. It wasn't just lower water temperatures but that dry high that was out in front of the storm moving in tandem with it for a few days got sucked into Felix and after a few adjustments he started an eye wall replacement cycle with a strange and eerie looking 9 in the middle of his core for a few hours... and then, he just bombed again the way he did the night before. Bad timing for Central America, good timing for Felix to possibly make landfall as a Category Five.

A few notes before I go highlighted from advisories and discussion. The bigger problem with Felix right now believe it or not not the winds but the rain and the slowing down of forward movement.

Watch for a webcast later this morning. I believe Bill will be doing it for Jim who was on last night with an excellent pre-game discussion. It's not a game but often I see the world through the eyes of a football fan and as I said yesterday, Felix is one hell of a mean fullback plowing through all obstacles, tucking away that ball, head down and running for the goaline of Central America.

Stay tuned... developing story as they say and I'll be back around Noon with landfall updates.

Just know and remember that Felix is teaching us a very valuable lesson.. the worst case scenario can and will happen time and time again and it could happen later this season or next to a very populated city built on the edge of the beautiful Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico and just as Waveland Mississippi got washed away in Katrina, so can a big city like Ft. Lauderdale or Savannah or Baltimore or Tampa again bear the brunt of such a deadly storm. Don't think it can't happen, it can and it will because that's life in the tropics.

Notes from advisory and discusion to think on:


"Felix continues generally westward but appears to be slowing down a
little...and the initial motion estimate is now 270/14. The eye is
only about three hours from making landfall along the coast of
northeastern Nicaragua...likely just south of the border with

"It is important to
emphasize...that this will not be just a coastal event. Very heavy
rains and life-threatening flash floods and mud slides could occur
well inland and many hours or days after this morning's landfall."


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