Hurricane Harbor

A writer and a tropical muse. A funky Lubavitcher who enjoys watching the weather, hurricanes, listening to music while enjoying life with a sense of humor and trying to make sense of it all!

Monday, September 03, 2007

Facts On Felix and Some Things To Think On...

Okay, let's try this a second time. I just wrote a long post and lost it. That's what happens when you stay up until 2am with your online friends and a guy named Felix. You get a little blurry eyed and still sleepy in the morning. Not even whole wheat french toast with blueberries and honey and 2 cups of coffee can wake you up enough to remember not to backspace while writing in blogger. I can't believe I did that. Why doesn't Starbucks deliver???

Anyways...I wanted to mention a few random but important points here to think on...while watching Felix spin west towards Central American.

1. It's going west. Felix has his head tucked down and is running like a good running back refusing to worry about anyone following him and not going to let anyone strip away the ball. Nope... Felix is running for the End Zone and that is Central America. I don't agree with the UKMET and think that the GFDL f i n a l l y has a good handle on Felix after ignoring him for days. Westward Ho! Maybe a few wobbles north of west but pretty much west for the rest of the road.

2. Please remember it was not the Category 4 or 5 winds of Mitch that wreaked devastation upon those poor villages but the torrential rains from mostly Tropical Storm force winds that trained rainstorm upon rainstorm upon those poor villages as the steering currents bombed out and left Mitch spinning for days inland. Like that ship that got stuck in it's eye, wrong spot, wrong time... so were those villages. It doesn't take a Category 5 storm to bring a village down in a mudslide. And, just as Katrina made landfall far away in Mississippi... the levee failure destroyed New Orleans from strong bands that possessed neither Category 4 or 5 winds. There was a system failure there by a system not properly maintained and fragile enough to falter from storms in the bands of Katrina that was making landfall far away in Mississippi. And, a child was killed in South Carolina during Andrew as the Pine Trees that Andrew brought down smashed through the roof of a house and into a nursery where a baby was sleeping quietly...far from the eye wall that was wreaking havoc upon Naranja and other parts of Homestead and Miami. A hurricane is a large, big entity and where there is weather there is the potential for death and disaster... from it's eye, from it's eye wall, from bands swirling far off in the distance or...twisters that spin up in it's bands. So... as Felix grows in size, geographical size... remember the bigger land mass per mile that it covers... the more potential there is for disaster. Dean was kind in a way... not so sure Felix will be as kind. Time will tell or rather... Felix will tell the tale but that's chapters off and no peaking, mother nature doesn't let us peak.. we have to watch in "real time" and we can figure out what happened after the fact like a good autopsy.

3. There is still an area of weather off the Carolinas that is spinning a bit and has the potential to become some sort of system, tropical or subtropical in the near future. Nogaps has joined the fantasy fest along with the Canadian in predicting development. Felix wasn't interested in looking north as it has it's eye set on Central America BUT..and this is a big, big IF.. IF the invest known as 98 on the NRL Navy site develops then 98 may be influenced by the area of rain off the Carolinas. There is this big nasty thing called SAL that is eating up the moisture of the African Waves and though at first that looks like a good thing it is infact in this case a bad thing. Why you ask? Because if SAL wasn't there those waves would develop fast, spinning as they hit the water an they would develop faster and in doing so they would most likely gain in latitude and head off to the wnw ....then the nw and curve gracefully out to sea like most Cape Verde Fish Storms. But.. because this year the very strong, stubborn waves are waiting until they pass the mid-ocean area inhabited by SAL (African Dust) they are forming closer to the Caribbean and breaking through the Lesser Antilles like fullbacks from the NFL playing against a defense of high school football players... and they are blowing up closer to land where they will make landfall unlike your normal Cape Verde storms that so often curve gracefully out to sea after scaring the daylights out of Florida or the Carolinas. So.... IF that little wave out there that is waiting in the wings to develop does so in the next day or two.. it could pull further north than Dean or Felix and... give us something to talk about, especially if... a system off the Carolinas forms and catches it's eye. No.. I didn't say 98 would hit the Carolinas.. I meant that it might tug it north enough degrees for the Greater Antilles and Florida to worry on it... maybe, we'll see, keep watching.

Model link:

If the L off of SE coast were to form it might be a Carolina storm but it might help 98 develop into a Florida storm if you see my logic... but we are just playing fantasy fest with models here until a player shows up for the party it is just something to talk about on a shady porch on a hot summery September afternoon.

4. I am at home today working on computers that are not as fancy or strong as my work computer is so I want to leave a few links here for people watching that still have dial up or who have high maintenance cable service like Comcast that comes and goes..... or if you have no patience for the fancy loops to load and don't like Java and want to stay off the Caffeine.. if you are on herbal tea today and want to take it easy and load a fast loop or look at a good image... here are a few you can use instead of cursing your service provider or wishing you had a faster computer. Enjoy...
A great image to watch that shows the whole basin and while Felix moves west you can watch the dot out in the Atlantic grow in color and possibly develop: Also note how west to east the currents are to the north of Felix... east to west, horizontal... no real dips or slots of troughs anywhere to have any effect on Felix. Then again if something does form off of the Carolinas it will be trapped there until something tugs at it one way or the other
Bobbi's old favorite water vapor loop. I just love this loop. Shows the variations in color easier than some of the newer fancier ones and gives a nice view of the whole world. Toggle back and forth from current image to oldest image and you can really see the changes that have taken place and note how easy it is to toggle back and forth.. easier than hitting STOP on some fast loop that refuses to notice you exist or want it to go slower or stop. Switch back and forth fast from Water Vapor to Enhanced IR or Visible, nice loop. Nice, nice loop.
Jim (God Bless His Soul) has it up on top of his links on his main page :) at hurrcity.
I love that link. Love it. Always have. Shows every little storm in the basin and updates fast.
If it is raining over your house... this image will show it soon. And... colorful and good for dramatic imagery when you don't want to take the time to loop.
The Old Dvorak, still takes a beating and goes on ticking like the QuikScat this is what they use when they can't get a dropsonde down into the storm to evaluate the strength of a storm and many a Tropical Storm has been upgraded and gotten a name based on this little satellite image. Still worth checking out and updates frequently and lets you see everything happening in the storm. Think of it like a brain scan of the Felix. Sometimes black and white is all you need even if color is what you love. Amazingly poised directly over the storm this floater link lets you look all the way down.. it's available in Visible, Water Vapor and IR but I am posting the Dvorak so people don't forget about it.

5. Lastly... for my brother Jay in Greece I just want him to know not to worry.. everything is flowing just fine today ;)

Amazing storm that Felix is... 199 mph peak level flight wind... awesome, heading west bound and down. Wonder where my Smokey and the Bandit DVD is.. might watch it while Felix spins... because he is spinning fast like he is bootlegging Coors across the border or something. Like a great running back who doesn't want to fumble the ball. Wish the Fins had a Felix on the team this year.

I'll check back later

Besos Bobbi
Ps... here is a great link someone posted on Hurricane City and oh.. may I add that is doing an AWESOME job with this storm. Clark, Tip, Dem, everyone... just everyone there is doing a great job giving excellent analysis and if you need something fast.. for some reason continues to post the latest on the storm before the NHC site does..
Long loop... wild morphing image of Felix, thanks Mike


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