Hurricane Harbor: Is Super El Nino Over Hype or Godzilla El Nino Over Hype and Super El Nino Just Right?

This is a good map Jeff Berardelli made!
Shows issues few discuss.

While El Nino can shut down some areas....

..other areas such as close in can be open for business.

Also high latitude landfalls close to home...

..along the East Coast and up into Canada!

Florence would be an example.

Michael would be an example.

More on that later...

Also there are new things going on...

...new ways of showing a cone.

Norcross shows how percentages matter!

I like this idea shown below.

Yes, I took some time to watch Bryan Norcross talking on El Nino as well as some general tropical discussion. There has been so much talk on Super El Nino Coming as if it's a promise. And, many see it as an added promise that we don't have to worry on Hurricane Season in the Atlantic. That is wrong. While we are not expecting a hyperactive hurricane season it's hard to say for sure what sort of hurricane season we will have until we are way deeper into July and August. And, as Bryan mentions in this video linked below, Hurricane Andrew that took advantage of a favorable week late in August when the season had been so quiet it was basically dormant. Actually the Hurricane Season of 1992 during an El Nino was playing possum and many bought it hook, line and sinker. Old time Miamians and Cubans watched nervously as they knew signs that sometimes fortell a hurricane would be coming to South Florida.

What were those signs? It was "beastly hot" early on and it never let up. Crazy hot, record breaking heat and our usual afternoon showers were not so usual. There was a double bloom of the mango trees and then old timers worried on that and no I can't explain the scientific details on how that happens but a double bloom often happens in a year with a hurricane. Then there was a third bloom and people were totally "what the hell" and old timers said to them "oh this is not good" while everyone else was dancing the El Nino Dance which they felt meant "no hurricanes" and as we were deep into August before we had a named storm, it seemed that was a definite thing. But then Andrew formed, and fobbled along trying to find traction and often was in danger of being until it found it's sweet spot and well 1992 became a "not so quiet year" quite suddenly! I use long run on sentences sometimes to express the reality of the Hurricane Season is a long season and it evolves in real time with many obstacles and sudden development or rapid intensificaiton known as RI.

It actually takes a lot to get a dangeous busy hurricane season going. And, yet sometimes we have dangerous seasons after promises by the media of a quiet season. I want people to remember that and stay aware and prepared!

Michael and Florence in 2018 left scars across the South when they made landfall in a year that was forecast to be quiet and less active. It was an El Nino year and cooler water temperatures seemed to be promised, but as we all know come hurricane season promises often get broken. You can read more on the reasons why 2018 did not end up being a quieter season as many had been led to believe in May and June.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-11-28-hurricane-season-2018-more-active-than-expected-recap

As always Bryan Norcross is great to listen to and if you are going to listen to discussion on El Nino and how it relates to this Hurricane Season he'd be the one to go to...

Either way, everyone is talking about it online so you can't miss it!

Since Mike and I are friends and I'm a huge fan as well I will go with his 2026 NAMES graphic!

One of these names may be remembered....

..like Andrew or Florence or Michael!

Spent much time last night going over analog years for 2026 by a variety of good meteorologists. I'll talk more on that later this week. What's interesting is many mention totally different years. There seems to be less agreement this year than usual. Stay tuned. Stay prepared. Stay aware!

Sweet Tropical Dreams

BobbiStorm

@bobbistorm on X