UPDATED TD 3 in BOC Possibly TC Chris By Landfall- Major Hurricane Beryl 130 MPH Forecast to be Cat 4 at Landfall by NHC. Beryl Chose a Bad Time to Do Rapid Intensification While Moving W at 21 MPH Windward Islands in Direct Path of a Destructive Dangerous Cat 4 Cane!

Last day of June.

TD 3 in BOC

130 MPH Beryl forecast to be 145 MPH

Invest 96L 70% Red 

Are we busy enough yet?

St.Vincent, the Grenadines and Grenada are currently seen to be the places to get the most direct impact from the eye of Hurricane Beryl. I'm talking the most severe winds and pounding storms in the eyewall and hopefully it continues it's fast forward speed, at least sparing these Islands a long, drawn out ordeal. Either way those are strong winds and it'll be the first time since 2004 when Ivan directly impacted them in this particular way. My heart goes out to people there and many people vacationing who traveled there believing that nothing horrible, tropically happens in June or July. In truth, if and when conditions are right... we can always have something develop, but it's definitely extremely rare to worry on tropical weather in June. Ivan was a September hurricane, Islands always expect hurricanes in September but not June and July. The financial hit for their economies and toll of cleaning up and rebuilding will be high.

July is tomorrow and tomorrow Major Hurricane Beryl will barrel through the Islands and then we will look down the road for what is next. For now... Jamaica is in the track, unless the track pulls more to the North and there is some indication it might in the discussion from the NHC at 5 PM. In theory it pulls a li'l bit N of West then curves back and continues it's current track. But, in my mind all bets are off until we see what Beryl does and it's good to be aware and prepared when you see a Hurricane to your South or you see it's cone go directly over your beautiful Island.

So let's look at Wind Probs.

They insinuate more than explain.

Hard to understand.

Directions on the NHC page.

As with models the trend is important.

When I see KW NOT in a wind prob for TS winds.

I'll be more of a believer.

By the way Beryl slowed to 18 MPH.

Still fast, but not as fast.

More so... 

When Grand Turk, Havana and Isle of Pines..

aren't in the wind probs...

I'll be more of a believer.

In theory areas in Texas are concerned as to whether Beryl can miss Mexico as Alberto  did and now TD 3 is doing. So why are Havana, Key West and more so why is Grand Turk in the Wind Probs? I understand them, they are important but my point is the trend is important. 

Speakng of TD 3 forecast to become Chris....

That said... 

I'm just showing one model here and it's the GFS and for no other reason than to show you the High Pressure and how it literally pushes everything West. EPAC gets a system, Beryl is over by the Yucatan and 96L tries and close off into a system. But the High is alive and breathing. Directing everything our way and down the tropical road every time the High inhales or is eroded by a system on it's Western Edge Florida and the Bahamas will have to hold their breath and be playing chicken with any storms that forms and rides around the High. Commonly, early in the season there's not enough there to lift a storm to the NW or North and it's common for storms to get a name and a bit of fame and collapse in the Caribbean. This year is different, so Beryl is not expected to collapse and die in the Caribbean Graveyard ...this year is different.

Stay tuned, stay prepared and aware and I'll update as needed.

I say this with all my heart......seriously praying and sending prayers to the people in the Islands in the path of Beryl. I'm a person who prays and sometimes my oldest son teases me and tells his siblings to do what Mommy does and "think good thoughts" but hey it's who I am. I know this can be a deadly set up and I hope against the reality of what we have that due to the size of Beryl and the fast movement, damages will be mitigated but in my gut I have a feeling many will be as surprised to see the amount of destruction as were surprised to see it become a Hurricane let alone a Major Hurricane!

Beryl as a Cat 4 wasn't on anyone's Bingo Card.

Beryl has always gone quietly into the night.

Beryl's name may be retired, we'll see.

Just a matter of time.

Every island has it's hurricane.

Every coastal town gets a landfall.

Towns inland get inland flooding.

Just a matter of time.

***

4 PM

TD 3 in BOC aka 94L

Advisory at 5 PM.

Could be named TS Chris ...time will tell.

As for Beryl...

...looks like a beta I had once.

Waiting on 5 PM discussion and cone.

120 MPH 

Moving W at 21 MPH

Forecast to be a Category 4 at Landall.

First off not talking on what could happen down the tropical road IF it gets into the Gulf of Mexico or hooks right towards Florida or ...... any possible dangerous scenario.......as this is real, happening and attention needs to be paid towards the Islands in the path of this historical hurricane on the last day of June. Tomorrow is July, Landfall will probably be after midnight so it'll go down as a July Landfall. Does it really matter? Statistics are fun for scientists and people in Academia. I am a college library, I know Academia well and while it's all relevant down the road for hurricane research what is most relevant now is that the people in the path of Beryl take it seriously and do all they can do find a place to hunker down or evacuate if they can to protect life and limb as the old saying goes.

Homes will be destroyed, businesses and storm surge will rearrange the beaches and it'll take a Cat 5 Miracle for no one to die and most likely the name Beryl will be retired. 

NHC points out it's continued intenfisication as it's moving fast towards Landfall. Anyone in the Islands needs to heed all watches and warnings as if their life depends on it as their life depends on it.

Alberto made Landfall.

Beryl will make Landfall. 

This is not some one hit wonder song...

Invest 96L is behind Beryl.

Further out towards Africa.

There's an incredible wave...

...higher than the previous ones.

Tropical Trouble indeed.

NHC has it at 140 MPH at Landfall.

11 AM is below.

Wrote this on Twitter in real time.

While thoughts were flowing fast....

...like the strong, steady breeze at the beach..

Before a hurricane makes Landfall.

I'll be back later today.

Read the previous post please from 9 AM.

Ignorance is bliss, yet as people wake up this morning in the Islands (locals, travelers, tourists) they are finding out there is a Cat 3 Hurricane coming. Many most likely can't believe what they are seeing but know warnings have been hoisted and Major Hurricane Beryl is on the way...soon as in tonight & in the early hours of July 1st. Many may not be able to get out in time... no one expected this in June. Especially people who are not here online obsessing and trading thoughts on every model that showed this could happen. People book cruises, trips feeling this neck of the tropics is safe in June & early July. Old timers always know it could happen, but a lot of people who have not seen a Major Hurricane hit relatively early in the season won't wrap their head around it until it's already there. Much like everyone tells me... "Miami never gets hit, they always turn away" because they do not remember the years when hurricanes did not turn away. Well ...something changed. And, we had a heads up all May when early tropical waves began rolling off of Africa, granted they were very low but they were rolling & looked healthy. Then later in June the wave train began and became real, and yet we were talking waves ending up by the Yucatan ... weak, trying to form into a storm. And, we had Alberto... Then came Invest 95L & there's no going back to the bliss of denial and ignorance. The Wave train is healthy, alive and Invest 96L is already at 70% red directly behind Major Hurricane Beryl. Hopefully there will be some variation in track as usually there is ...because the last thing we need is for Trinidad, Grenada, Barbados, St. Lucia to have a back to back hit. This could be brutal, really brutal and talking during & after during rescue & recovery. Beryl has a small core, it's not a huge hurricane but the more it strengthens the wider the area of influence it has and the further out the winds will go. And, while those winds may not blow as much as the islands in the direct path of Cat 3 or Cat 4 Beryl. This is happening. Take heed and prepare in Houston, in Mobile Alabama, in Destin, in Tampa, in Miami, in Bimini and up the whole Eastern Seaboard as Fish may not be a popular dish that Mother Nature is serving this hurricane season. From Key West to Maine, including New England, pay attention and prepare for hurricane season ...this year! Don't waste money, save it for emergencies. Save it for evacuation and/or hurricane supplies. Buy a generator if you are staying, on Mike's Weather Page there are discounts & I'm sure there's sales on Amazon. Longest post or tweet ...whichever you want to call it ...I've ever written but since I can I am... take the 2024 Hurricane Season forecasts for a busy season seriously. Ignorance may be bliss, but knowledge is power.

So is being Hurricane Ready... if and when you're in the cone of a hurricane down the line this busy hurricane season.

Besos BobbiStorm

Ps Anyone who knows Jim Williams and knows the list he puts out every year of top 20 cities ... know Miami is on that list as several spots in the Cuba and the Bahamas. Recurvature is not a given and in any given year it's just a matter of time. Jim, in fact takes into account years between Landfall and has a whole system of when some city goes on his list as it's time is up... some day, some year soon... so be prepared and take the time now while it's quiet in your part of the world to get a plan, do hurricane prep and figure out what will works best for you and your loved ones...significant others, parents, children, pets...