Hurricane Harbor: Yellow Circle in GOM 20% in 7 Days... Crosses Florida and Then What? There's a Chance...... Moisture in the Carib, Bahamas and Florida Will be Rainy. Does June 1st End Up with a Named Storm? Maybe, There's a Chance. Just a Chance....

10% in the 2 day - 20% in the 7 day.

I waited til 2 PM to write the blog.

I'd have bet on a yellow circle...

...and I'm not a gambler.

I only bet on sure things.

A trough and an Upper Level Low...

...mixing it up in the Gulf of Mexico.

Yellow circle just a matter of time.

Convection shows up here well...

...so does the shear there.

Pushing off to the East fast.

Oh...Florida kind of in it's way.

Obviously.

I've mentioned this here and on Twitter often, this pattern of convection flaring up in the Gulf of Mexico, dousing Florida with tropical moisture and once in the Atlantic over the Gulfstream it has a chance of developing into something. I say something as it could be a tropical system, subtropical system or another Coastal Low. But there's a chance......

Every weather fanatic or chaser online today.

Yeah....

You can almost connect the purple blobs can't you.

We are still in frontal territory weather wise...

..and EPAC is about to pop eventually.

2 Low pressure areas are easily discernable.

In the GOM you can see a sense of circulation, yet all of the weather is displaced to the right as there is shear there pushing the storms off towards Floida. The area to the East of Florida is moist, ready and waiting... has it's best red dress on with matching red high heels! Down in the Caribbean South of Jamaica you'll notice there's also convection with bright color kicking up storms there, by Cuba and on the tip of the Yucatan. Do you get the feeling the horses are moving into their places for the race?

Thursday is June 1st.

Let the games begin as many like to say...

...or been saying since 1997 and before ;)

But which horse wins the race?

Which area has the best chance of developing?

You have to start with moisture and pressures lowering to get something going. However, shear gets a huge vote as does Saharan Dust. Shear knocks the tops off the clouds and shear sucks the moisture out of them. Just because we have areas to watch does not mean we definitely will have development. But, there's a chance, the point of today's blog is to let you know there is a chance and the Caribbean is very soupy, wet, moist and ready to party.

Oddly the EURO is more bullish than the GFS in the short term, yet the GFS shows another Deja Vu Coatal Low closer to the coast while the EURO sees something out in the Atlantic with deepening pressures and a chance of a name.

Name game is not easy but we are just watching the pattern and models spit up possible ever changing solutions every day so keep an eye on it, know Florida will be rainy (so will be the Caribbean if you're cruising) and it is possible currently that there is a chance the start of the Hurricane Season kicks up with some action from the NHC on a possible tropical like system. Lots of IFS ANDS and MAYBES.